Sat, Oct 25 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Ball State✈ 211 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Northern Illinois wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -6.5
O/U 41.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2025 Schedule
Ball State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Ball State at Purdue | +16.5L0–31 | 50.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Ball State at Auburn | +43.0L3–42 | 52.5 | L3–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Ball State vs New Hampshire | -3.0W34–29 | 46.5 | W34–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Ball State at UConn | +21.0L25–31 | 53.5 | L25–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Ball State vs Ohio | +14.0W20–14 | 52.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Ball State at Western Michigan | +9.5L0–42 | 43.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Ball State vs Akron | +2.5W42–28 | 44.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | +6.5L7–21 | 41.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Ball State vs Kent State | -3.0W17–13 | 48.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Ball State vs Eastern Michigan | +2.5L9–24 | 48.5 | L9–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Ball State at Toledo | +29.5L9–38 | 45.5 | L9–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Ball State at Miami (OH) | +16.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross | -13.5W19–17 | 48.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Northern Illinois at Maryland | +17.0L9–20 | 44.5 | L9–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Northern Illinois at Mississippi State | +23.5L10–38 | 48.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Northern Illinois vs San Diego State | +1.5L3–6 | 41.5 | L3–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH) | +4.5L14–25 | 38.5 | L14–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan | -1.5L10–16 | 48.5 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Northern Illinois at Ohio | +10.5L21–48 | 41.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | -6.5W21–7 | 41.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +14.5L3–42 | 42.5 | L3–42 | O | N |
| Wed 11/12 | Northern Illinois at Massachusetts | -8.5W45–3 | 43.5 | W45–3 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/18 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | +7.0L19–35 | 39.5 | L19–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Northern Illinois vs Kent State | -5.0L31–35 | 45.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northern Illinois, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 2
#1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Wesley Beschorner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓