Bowling Green at Ohio Week 5 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Ohio Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Peden Stadium Athens, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 163 miSame TZ
20 35
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
17
Ohio
32
P&R Line Ohio -15.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Ohio -7.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ohio -7.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Ohio 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Bowling Green 2nd straight Road Game
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.0W26–753.0W26–7UN
Sat 9/6Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.5L20–3446.5L20–34OY
Sat 9/13Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.0W23–1351.5W23–13UY
Sat 9/20Bowling Green at Louisville+26.5L17–4050.5L17–40OY
Sat 9/27Bowling Green at Ohio+7.5L20–3549.5L20–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.5W28–2345.5W28–23OY
Sat 10/18Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.0L6–2743.5L6–27UN
Sat 10/25Bowling Green at Kent State-7.5L21–2447.5L21–24UN
Sat 11/1Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.5L3–2844.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/8Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/18Bowling Green vs Akron-2.5L16–1947.5L16–19UN
Tue 11/25Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.0W45–1444.5W45–14OY
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Ohio at Rutgers+11.5L31–3446.5L31–34OY
Sat 9/6Ohio vs West Virginia+3.5W17–1058.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/13Ohio at Ohio State+28.0L9–3749.0L9–37UY
Sat 9/20Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.5W52–3555.0W52–35ON
Sat 9/27Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.5W35–2049.5W35–20OY
Sat 10/4Ohio at Ball State-14.0L14–2052.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.5W48–2141.5W48–21OY
Sat 10/25Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.5W28–2160.5W28–21UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.5W24–2050.5W24–20UY
Tue 11/11Ohio at Western Michigan+1.5L13–1746.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/18Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.5W42–1453.5W42–14ON
Fri 11/28Ohio at Buffalo-7.0W31–2644.5W31–26ON
Tue 12/23Ohio vs UNLV+6.5W17–1064.5W17–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #128
+0.149
Ohio #42
+0.361
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #129
+0.275
Ohio #60
+0.548
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #12
0.190
Ohio #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #118
+6.024
Ohio #84
+6.988
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #128
+0.769
Ohio #41
+0.855
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #27
69.0
Ohio #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Ohio
-10.4
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Ohio
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Ohio
17.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #114
0.67
Ohio #67
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #72
1.67
Ohio #102
1.33
Bowling Green +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
47.1
Ohio #1
35.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #111
44.9
Ohio #29
47.9
Bowling Green +11.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 3 #1
DC Steve Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 2 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself