Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 246 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Louisville wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -26.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisville
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Bowling Green vs Lafayette | -21.0W26–7 | 53.0 | W26–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Bowling Green at Cincinnati | +21.5L20–34 | 46.5 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Bowling Green vs Liberty | +6.0W23–13 | 51.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Bowling Green at Louisville | +26.5L17–40 | 50.5 | L17–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Bowling Green at Ohio | +7.5L20–35 | 49.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +10.5W28–23 | 45.5 | W28–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Bowling Green vs Central Michigan | -3.0L6–27 | 43.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Bowling Green at Kent State | -7.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Bowling Green vs Buffalo | -2.5L3–28 | 44.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan | +3.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/18 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -2.5L16–19 | 47.5 | L16–19 | U | N |
| Tue 11/25 | Bowling Green at Massachusetts | -14.0W45–14 | 44.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
Louisville 2025 Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -37.5W51–17 | 57.5 | W51–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -15.0W28–14 | 57.0 | W28–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Louisville vs Bowling Green | -26.5W40–17 | 50.5 | W40–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -3.0W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Louisville vs Virginia | -6.5L27–30 | 59.5 | L27–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | Louisville at Miami | +10.5W24–21 | 49.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Louisville vs Boston College | -25.5W38–24 | 54.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Louisville at Virginia Tech | -10.5W28–16 | 52.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisville vs California | -18.5L26–29 | 48.5 | L26–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Louisville vs Clemson | -1.5L19–20 | 50.5 | L19–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Louisville at SMU | +4.0L6–38 | 49.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -1.0W41–0 | 45.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/23 | Louisville vs Toledo | -12.5W27–22 | 44.5 | W27–22 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bowling Green +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +7.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
4 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Louisville
76.8 — 7.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisville won by 23
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisville. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 3
#1
DC
Steve Morrison
Yr 1
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
18–8 (69%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 3
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓