Sat, Oct 25 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 121 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kent State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kent State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Kent State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -7.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Bowling Green vs Lafayette | -21.0W26–7 | 53.0 | W26–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Bowling Green at Cincinnati | +21.5L20–34 | 46.5 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Bowling Green vs Liberty | +6.0W23–13 | 51.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Bowling Green at Louisville | +26.5L17–40 | 50.5 | L17–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Bowling Green at Ohio | +7.5L20–35 | 49.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +10.5W28–23 | 45.5 | W28–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Bowling Green vs Central Michigan | -3.0L6–27 | 43.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Bowling Green at Kent State | -7.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Bowling Green vs Buffalo | -2.5L3–28 | 44.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan | +3.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/18 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -2.5L16–19 | 47.5 | L16–19 | U | N |
| Tue 11/25 | Bowling Green at Massachusetts | -14.0W45–14 | 44.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
Kent State 2025 Schedule
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Kent State vs Merrimack | -5.5W21–17 | 50.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kent State at Texas Tech | +48.5L14–62 | 60.0 | L14–62 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +23.5L28–31 | 48.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Kent State at Florida State | +44.5L10–66 | 56.5 | L10–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Kent State at Oklahoma | +46.5L0–44 | 53.5 | L0–44 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kent State vs Massachusetts | -1.5W42–6 | 49.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Kent State at Toledo | +25.5L10–45 | 48.5 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +7.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Kent State at Ball State | +3.0L13–17 | 48.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Tue 11/11 | Kent State at Akron | +7.5W42–35 | 49.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/19 | Kent State vs Central Michigan | +7.5L16–28 | 50.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Kent State at Northern Illinois | +5.0W35–31 | 45.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
23.9 — 58.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kent State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kent State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 3
#1
DC
Steve Morrison
Yr 1
#1
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–23 (4%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kody Morgan
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓