Florida Atlantic at Tulane Week 12 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Tulane Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Benson Field at Yulman Stadium New Orleans, LA · Turf · 30,000 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 657 mi-1 hr TZ
24 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
20
Tulane
38
P&R Line Tulane -18.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Tulane -16.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Tulane has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Tulane entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Tulane wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Tulane wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tulane -16.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulane · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2025 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.5L7–3957.5L7–39UN
Sat 9/6Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.0W56–1451.0W56–14OY
Sat 9/13Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.0L28–3856.5L28–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.0L26–5562.5L26–55ON
Sat 10/4Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.5W27–2154.5W27–21UY
Sat 10/11Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.5W53–3366.5W53–33OY
Sat 10/18Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.5L13–4872.5L13–48UN
Sat 10/25Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.5L32–4263.5L32–42OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.5W40–2160.5W40–21OY
Sat 11/15Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.5L24–3560.5L24–35UY
Sat 11/22Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.0L45–4864.0L45–48OY
Sat 11/29Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.5L3–4266.5L3–42UN
Tulane 2025 Schedule
Tulane's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Tulane vs Northwestern-6.5W23–347.5W23–3UY
Sat 9/6Tulane at South Alabama-13.5W33–3151.5W33–31ON
Sat 9/13Tulane vs Duke-1.5W34–2752.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/20Tulane at Ole Miss+12.5L10–4561.5L10–45UN
Sat 9/27Tulane at Tulsa-14.5W31–1452.5W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Tulane vs East Carolina-7.0W26–1953.5W26–19UN
Sat 10/18Tulane vs Army-10.0W24–1744.5W24–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Tulane at UTSA-5.5L26–4854.5L26–48ON
Fri 11/7Tulane at Memphis+3.0W38–3253.5W38–32OY
Sat 11/15Tulane vs Florida Atlantic-16.5W35–2460.5W35–24UN
Sat 11/22Tulane at Temple-7.5W37–1354.5W37–13UY
Sat 11/29Tulane vs Charlotte-31.5W27–052.5W27–0UN
Fri 12/5Tulane vs North Texas+1.5W34–2166.5W34–21UY
Sat 12/20Tulane at Ole Miss+17.5L10–4157.5L10–41UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Tulane PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #43
+0.360
Tulane #33
+0.482
Tulane Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #42
+0.587
Tulane #27
+0.686
Tulane Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #106
0.139
Tulane #52
0.165
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tulane Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #93
+7.145
Tulane #54
+8.452
Tulane Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.868
Tulane #34
+0.910
Tulane Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #35
69.5
Tulane #2
65.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tulane Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tulane Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Tulane
0.9
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Tulane
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Tulane
13.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Tulane Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #101
0.63
Tulane #33
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #127
2.13
Tulane #122
1.33
Tulane +1.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tulane Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
43.7
Tulane #1
57.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #112
46.6
Tulane #24
28.4
Tulane +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Tulane with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Vacant Yr 1 #1
DC Brett Dewhurst Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tulane
Jon Sumrall #1
9–4 (69%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joe Craddock Yr 2 #1
DC Greg Gasparato Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself