Sat, Nov 15 2025
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
New Orleans, LA
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 657 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Tulane
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tulane entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Tulane wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Tulane wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tulane -16.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulane
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2025 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Florida Atlantic at Maryland | +16.5L7–39 | 57.5 | L7–39 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M | -21.0W56–14 | 51.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Florida Atlantic at Florida International | +2.0L28–38 | 56.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Florida Atlantic vs Memphis | +14.0L26–55 | 62.5 | L26–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Florida Atlantic at Rice | +4.5W27–21 | 54.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Florida Atlantic vs UAB | -4.5W53–33 | 66.5 | W53–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Florida Atlantic at South Florida | +20.5L13–48 | 72.5 | L13–48 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Florida Atlantic at Navy | +14.5L32–42 | 63.5 | L32–42 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa | -4.5W40–21 | 60.5 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida Atlantic at Tulane | +16.5L24–35 | 60.5 | L24–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Florida Atlantic vs UConn | +6.0L45–48 | 64.0 | L45–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina | +6.5L3–42 | 66.5 | L3–42 | U | N |
Tulane 2025 Schedule
Tulane's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tulane vs Northwestern | -6.5W23–3 | 47.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tulane at South Alabama | -13.5W33–31 | 51.5 | W33–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Tulane vs Duke | -1.5W34–27 | 52.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Tulane at Ole Miss | +12.5L10–45 | 61.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Tulane at Tulsa | -14.5W31–14 | 52.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Tulane vs East Carolina | -7.0W26–19 | 53.5 | W26–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Tulane vs Army | -10.0W24–17 | 44.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Tulane at UTSA | -5.5L26–48 | 54.5 | L26–48 | O | N |
| Fri 11/7 | Tulane at Memphis | +3.0W38–32 | 53.5 | W38–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Tulane vs Florida Atlantic | -16.5W35–24 | 60.5 | W35–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Tulane at Temple | -7.5W37–13 | 54.5 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tulane vs Charlotte | -31.5W27–0 | 52.5 | W27–0 | U | N |
| Fri 12/5 | Tulane vs North Texas | +1.5W34–21 | 66.5 | W34–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Tulane at Ole Miss | +17.5L10–41 | 57.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +1.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tulane with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brett Dewhurst
Yr 1
#1
Tulane
Jon Sumrall #1
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Greg Gasparato
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

