Florida Atlantic at Maryland Week 1 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Maryland Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 30 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Maryland Stadium College Park, MD · Turf · 51,802 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 890 miSame TZ
7 39
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
21
Maryland
36
P&R Line Maryland -15
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Maryland -16.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Maryland -16.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Maryland · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2025 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.5L7–3957.5L7–39UN
Sat 9/6Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.0W56–1451.0W56–14OY
Sat 9/13Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.0L28–3856.5L28–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.0L26–5562.5L26–55ON
Sat 10/4Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.5W27–2154.5W27–21UY
Sat 10/11Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.5W53–3366.5W53–33OY
Sat 10/18Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.5L13–4872.5L13–48UN
Sat 10/25Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.5L32–4263.5L32–42OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.5W40–2160.5W40–21OY
Sat 11/15Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.5L24–3560.5L24–35UY
Sat 11/22Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.0L45–4864.0L45–48OY
Sat 11/29Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.5L3–4266.5L3–42UN
Maryland 2025 Schedule
Maryland's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Maryland vs Florida Atlantic-16.5W39–757.5W39–7UY
Fri 9/5Maryland vs Northern Illinois-17.0W20–944.5W20–9UN
Sat 9/13Maryland vs Towson-28.5W44–1753.5W44–17ON
Sat 9/20Maryland at Wisconsin+10.5W27–1044.5W27–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Maryland vs Washington+5.5L20–2452.5L20–24UY
Sat 10/11Maryland vs Nebraska+7.0L31–3447.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/18Maryland at UCLA+3.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Maryland vs Indiana+21.0L10–5550.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/8Maryland at Rutgers+1.5L20–3556.5L20–35UN
Sat 11/15Maryland at Illinois+15.5L6–2451.5L6–24UN
Sat 11/22Maryland vs Michigan+14.0L20–4546.5L20–45ON
Sat 11/29Maryland vs Michigan State+4.0L28–3849.5L28–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Maryland PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Maryland
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #43
+0.340
Maryland #85
+0.410
Maryland Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #42
+0.495
Maryland #77
+0.535
Maryland Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #106
0.139
Maryland #104
0.141
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Maryland Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #93
+7.091
Maryland #100
+7.971
Maryland Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.859
Maryland #100
+0.856
Florida Atlantic Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #35
69.5
Maryland #54
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Atlantic Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Maryland Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Maryland
4.5
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Maryland
17.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Maryland
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #101
0.00
Maryland #94
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #127
0.00
Maryland #120
0.00
Florida Atlantic +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
0.0
Maryland #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #112
0.0
Maryland #80
0.0
Florida Atlantic +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Maryland
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Maryland
78.6 — 6.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Maryland won by 32
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Maryland, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Vacant Yr 1 #1
DC Brett Dewhurst Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
33–41 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Pep Hamilton Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself