Memphis at Florida Atlantic Week 5 College Football Matchup Memphis at Florida Atlantic Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Memphis✈ 841 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
55 26
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
38
Florida Atlantic
24
P&R Line Memphis -14
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Memphis -14 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -14
O/U 62.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Florida Atlantic Coming off BYE
Memphis 2025 Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.5W45–1055.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/6Memphis at Georgia State-14.5W38–1657.5W38–16UY
Sat 9/13Memphis at Troy-4.5W28–751.5W28–7UY
Sat 9/20Memphis vs Arkansas+7.0W32–3159.5W32–31OY
Sat 9/27Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.0W55–2662.5W55–26OY
Sat 10/4Memphis vs Tulsa-21.0W45–754.5W45–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Memphis at UAB-23.5L24–3159.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/25Memphis vs South Florida+3.5W34–3158.5W34–31OY
Fri 10/31Memphis at Rice-13.5W38–1448.5W38–14OY
Fri 11/7Memphis vs Tulane-3.0L32–3853.5L32–38ON
Sat 11/15Memphis at East Carolina+3.0L27–3156.5L27–31ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/27Memphis vs Navy-3.5L17–2857.5L17–28UN
Fri 12/19Memphis vs NC State+6.0L7–3156.5L7–31UN
Florida Atlantic 2025 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.5L7–3957.5L7–39UN
Sat 9/6Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.0W56–1451.0W56–14OY
Sat 9/13Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.0L28–3856.5L28–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.0L26–5562.5L26–55ON
Sat 10/4Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.5W27–2154.5W27–21UY
Sat 10/11Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.5W53–3366.5W53–33OY
Sat 10/18Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.5L13–4872.5L13–48UN
Sat 10/25Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.5L32–4263.5L32–42OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.5W40–2160.5W40–21OY
Sat 11/15Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.5L24–3560.5L24–35UY
Sat 11/22Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.0L45–4864.0L45–48OY
Sat 11/29Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.5L3–4266.5L3–42UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis #24
+0.519
Florida Atlantic #43
+0.399
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #80
+0.531
Florida Atlantic #42
+0.703
Florida Atlantic Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis #30
0.174
Florida Atlantic #106
0.139
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #23
+8.984
Florida Atlantic #93
+7.494
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis #40
+0.904
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.833
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis #60
70.6
Florida Atlantic #35
69.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Atlantic Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.1
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #72
0.00
Florida Atlantic #101
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #27
0.33
Florida Atlantic #127
3.00
Memphis +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
59.8
Florida Atlantic #1
37.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #68
25.8
Florida Atlantic #112
48.3
Memphis +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
41–21 (66%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Vacant Yr 1 #1
DC Brett Dewhurst Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself