Coastal Carolina at South Carolina Week 13 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at South Carolina Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, SC · Turf · 80,250 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 115 miSame TZ
7 51
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
12
SC -24
South Carolina
40
P&R Line South Carolina -28
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas South Carolina -24.0 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -24.0
O/U 50.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Coastal Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Coastal Carolina at Virginia+12.5L7–4857.5L7–48UN
Sat 9/6Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern-28.5W13–049.0W13–0UN
Sat 9/13Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina+7.0L0–3858.0L0–38UN
Sat 9/20Coastal Carolina at South Alabama+14.5W38–2051.5W38–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion+18.5L7–4753.5L7–47ON
Sat 10/11Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe+3.0W23–846.5W23–8UY
Sat 10/18Coastal Carolina at App State+10.5W45–3748.5W45–37OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Coastal Carolina vs Marshall+7.5W44–2755.5W44–27OY
Sat 11/8Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-7.0W40–2756.5W40–27OY
Sat 11/15Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern+3.0L40–4559.5L40–45ON
Sat 11/22Coastal Carolina at South Carolina+24.0L7–5150.0L7–51ON
Sat 11/29Coastal Carolina vs James Madison+24.0L10–5954.5L10–59ON
Tue 12/30Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–2351.0L14–23UY
South Carolina 2025 Schedule
South Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31South Carolina vs Virginia Tech-8.5W24–1148.5W24–11UY
Sat 9/6South Carolina vs South Carolina State-43.0W38–1054.0W38–10UN
Sat 9/13South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-3.0L7–3148.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/20South Carolina at Missouri+10.0L20–2948.5L20–29OY
Sat 9/27South Carolina vs Kentucky-5.5W35–1346.5W35–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11South Carolina at LSU+8.5L10–2044.5L10–20UN
Sat 10/18South Carolina vs Oklahoma+4.5L7–2642.5L7–26UN
Sat 10/25South Carolina vs Alabama+11.5L22–2947.5L22–29OY
Sat 11/1South Carolina at Ole Miss+12.5L14–3055.5L14–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15South Carolina at Texas A&M+16.5L30–3149.5L30–31OY
Sat 11/22South Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-24.0W51–750.0W51–7OY
Sat 11/29South Carolina vs Clemson-2.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
South Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #113
+0.176
South Carolina #109
+0.290
South Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #116
+0.397
South Carolina #109
+0.478
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #75
0.153
South Carolina #61
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #58
+6.952
South Carolina #134
+6.219
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #119
+0.786
South Carolina #118
+0.801
South Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #46
69.9
South Carolina #128
73.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
South Carolina
5.3
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
South Carolina
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
South Carolina
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #119
1.00
South Carolina #118
0.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #129
1.33
South Carolina #67
1.11
Coastal Carolina +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
39.1
South Carolina #1
37.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #118
51.5
South Carolina #78
42.9
Coastal Carolina +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Carolina
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
98.4 — 1.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 44
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tim Beck* Yr 1 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
29–21 (58%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shula Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself