Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
·
24,050 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 225 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
App State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
App State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
App State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
App State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
App State -10.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +12.5L7–48 | 57.5 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -28.5W13–0 | 49.0 | W13–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L0–38 | 58.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Coastal Carolina at South Alabama | +14.5W38–20 | 51.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion | +18.5L7–47 | 53.5 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe | +3.0W23–8 | 46.5 | W23–8 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Coastal Carolina at App State | +10.5W45–37 | 48.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Marshall | +7.5W44–27 | 55.5 | W44–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -7.0W40–27 | 56.5 | W40–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | +3.0L40–45 | 59.5 | L40–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Coastal Carolina at South Carolina | +24.0L7–51 | 50.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Coastal Carolina vs James Madison | +24.0L10–59 | 54.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech | +10.0L14–23 | 51.0 | L14–23 | U | Y |
App State 2025 Schedule
App State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | App State vs Charlotte | -8.5W34–11 | 53.5 | W34–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | App State vs Lindenwood | -31.5W20–13 | 56.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | App State at Southern Miss | -3.0L22–38 | 55.5 | L22–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | App State at Boise State | +16.5L14–47 | 59.5 | L14–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | App State vs Oregon State | -1.5W27–23 | 53.5 | W27–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | App State at Georgia State | -3.0W41–20 | 55.5 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -10.5L37–45 | 48.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | App State at Old Dominion | +12.5L21–24 | 60.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -4.5L23–25 | 62.5 | L23–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | App State at James Madison | +21.0L10–58 | 53.5 | L10–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | App State vs Marshall | +3.5W26–24 | 57.5 | W26–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | App State vs Arkansas State | -1.0L29–30 | 54.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Mon 12/29 | App State vs Georgia Southern | +10.0L10–29 | 58.5 | L10–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +18.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on App State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 1
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 3
#1
App State
Dowell Loggains #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓