James Madison at Coastal Carolina Week 14 College Football Matchup James Madison at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
James Madison✈ 320 miSame TZ
59 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
38
Coastal Carolina
16
P&R Line James Madison -21.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -24.0 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -24.0
O/U 54.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2025 Schedule
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30James Madison vs Weber State-26.5W45–1054.5W45–10OY
Fri 9/5James Madison at Louisville+15.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20James Madison at Liberty-7.5W31–1346.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/27James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.5W35–1054.5W35–10UY
Sat 10/4James Madison at Georgia State-19.5W14–752.5W14–7UN
Sat 10/11James Madison vs Louisiana-18.5W24–1444.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/18James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.0W63–2747.5W63–27OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/28James Madison at Texas State-7.5W52–2055.5W52–20OY
Sat 11/8James Madison at Marshall-13.5W35–2353.5W35–23ON
Sat 11/15James Madison vs App State-21.0W58–1053.5W58–10OY
Sat 11/22James Madison vs Washington State-15.0W24–2044.5W24–20UN
Sat 11/29James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.0W59–1054.5W59–10OY
Fri 12/5James Madison vs Troy-24.5W31–1447.5W31–14UN
Sat 12/20James Madison at Oregon+22.5L34–5147.5L34–51OY
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Coastal Carolina at Virginia+12.5L7–4857.5L7–48UN
Sat 9/6Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern-28.5W13–049.0W13–0UN
Sat 9/13Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina+7.0L0–3858.0L0–38UN
Sat 9/20Coastal Carolina at South Alabama+14.5W38–2051.5W38–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion+18.5L7–4753.5L7–47ON
Sat 10/11Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe+3.0W23–846.5W23–8UY
Sat 10/18Coastal Carolina at App State+10.5W45–3748.5W45–37OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Coastal Carolina vs Marshall+7.5W44–2755.5W44–27OY
Sat 11/8Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-7.0W40–2756.5W40–27OY
Sat 11/15Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern+3.0L40–4559.5L40–45ON
Sat 11/22Coastal Carolina at South Carolina+24.0L7–5150.0L7–51ON
Sat 11/29Coastal Carolina vs James Madison+24.0L10–5954.5L10–59ON
Tue 12/30Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–2351.0L14–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #41
+0.399
Coastal Carolina #113
+0.124
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #51
+0.593
Coastal Carolina #116
+0.247
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #7
0.199
Coastal Carolina #75
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #43
+7.587
Coastal Carolina #58
+7.208
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #38
+0.879
Coastal Carolina #119
+0.683
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #8
67.4
Coastal Carolina #46
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #9
1.50
Coastal Carolina #119
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #53
0.40
Coastal Carolina #129
1.60
James Madison +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
60.3
Coastal Carolina #1
35.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
19.2
Coastal Carolina #118
55.7
James Madison +24.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 2 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tim Beck* Yr 1 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself