Sat, Nov 15 2025
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 186 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Southern -3
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Southern
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +12.5L7–48 | 57.5 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -28.5W13–0 | 49.0 | W13–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L0–38 | 58.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Coastal Carolina at South Alabama | +14.5W38–20 | 51.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion | +18.5L7–47 | 53.5 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe | +3.0W23–8 | 46.5 | W23–8 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Coastal Carolina at App State | +10.5W45–37 | 48.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Marshall | +7.5W44–27 | 55.5 | W44–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -7.0W40–27 | 56.5 | W40–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | +3.0L40–45 | 59.5 | L40–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Coastal Carolina at South Carolina | +24.0L7–51 | 50.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Coastal Carolina vs James Madison | +24.0L10–59 | 54.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech | +10.0L14–23 | 51.0 | L14–23 | U | Y |
Georgia Southern 2025 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia Southern at Fresno State | +2.5L14–42 | 54.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia Southern at USC | +29.0L20–59 | 61.5 | L20–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State | -3.0W41–34 | 59.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia Southern vs Maine | -22.0W45–17 | 57.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia Southern at James Madison | +14.5L10–35 | 54.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss | +3.0L35–38 | 59.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | -6.5W41–24 | 58.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Georgia Southern at Arkansas State | -1.5L24–34 | 59.5 | L24–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | Georgia Southern at App State | +4.5W25–23 | 62.5 | W25–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | -3.0W45–40 | 59.5 | W45–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion | +10.0L10–45 | 62.0 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Georgia Southern at Marshall | +10.5W24–19 | 61.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/29 | Georgia Southern vs App State | -10.0W29–10 | 58.5 | W29–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Southern
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +0.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 1
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 3
#1
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓