Sat, Nov 15 2025
·
Week 12
·
🏟 University Stadium
Albuquerque, NM
·
Turf
·
39,224 cap
Colorado State✈ 389 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
New Mexico entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
New Mexico wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -15.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado State 2025 Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Colorado State at Washington | +20.5L21–38 | 52.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -35.0W21–17 | 52.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado State vs UTSA | +4.5L16–17 | 58.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado State vs Washington State | -4.5L3–20 | 48.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/3 | Colorado State at San Diego State | +4.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Colorado State vs Fresno State | +5.5W49–21 | 47.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Colorado State vs Hawai'i | -2.5L19–31 | 53.5 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +5.5L0–28 | 46.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado State vs UNLV | +5.5L10–42 | 60.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Colorado State at New Mexico | +15.5L17–20 | 53.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado State at Boise State | +17.5L21–49 | 46.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +2.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
New Mexico 2025 Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | New Mexico at Michigan | +36.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | New Mexico vs Idaho State | -17.5W32–22 | 60.0 | W32–22 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | New Mexico at UCLA | +15.5W35–10 | 52.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -16.5W38–20 | 53.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | New Mexico at San José State | +1.5L28–35 | 58.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +14.5L25–41 | 58.5 | L25–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | New Mexico vs Nevada | -14.0W24–22 | 49.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | New Mexico vs Utah State | -3.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | New Mexico at UNLV | +3.5W40–35 | 61.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | New Mexico vs Colorado State | -15.5W20–17 | 53.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | New Mexico at Air Force | -3.5W20–3 | 53.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | New Mexico vs San Diego State | +1.5W23–17 | 41.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | New Mexico vs Minnesota | +1.5L17–20 | 44.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +0.88
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +28.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico
62.4 — 12.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on New Mexico with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
16–20 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 1
#1
New Mexico
Jason Eck #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Luke Schleusner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓