West Virginia at Ohio Week 2 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Ohio Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Peden Stadium Athens, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 116 miSame TZ
10 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
26
OHIO +3.5
Ohio
29
P&R Line Ohio -3
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas West Virginia -3.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
West Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -3.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Ohio at Rutgers+11.5L31–3446.5L31–34OY
Sat 9/6Ohio vs West Virginia+3.5W17–1058.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/13Ohio at Ohio State+28.0L9–3749.0L9–37UY
Sat 9/20Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.5W52–3555.0W52–35ON
Sat 9/27Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.5W35–2049.5W35–20OY
Sat 10/4Ohio at Ball State-14.0L14–2052.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.5W48–2141.5W48–21OY
Sat 10/25Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.5W28–2160.5W28–21UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.5W24–2050.5W24–20UY
Tue 11/11Ohio at Western Michigan+1.5L13–1746.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/18Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.5W42–1453.5W42–14ON
Fri 11/28Ohio at Buffalo-7.0W31–2644.5W31–26ON
Tue 12/23Ohio vs UNLV+6.5W17–1064.5W17–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #118
+0.193
Ohio #42
+0.363
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #99
+0.402
Ohio #60
+0.601
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #26
0.177
Ohio #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #86
+6.365
Ohio #84
+7.448
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #121
+0.781
Ohio #41
+0.854
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #89
71.7
Ohio #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ohio Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.2
Ohio
-10.3
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Ohio
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.6
Ohio
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #108
0.00
Ohio #67
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #110
0.00
Ohio #102
0.00
West Virginia +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? West Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
97.9
Ohio #1
10.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #127
0.5
Ohio #29
72.9
West Virginia +87.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio
61.3 — 17.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ohio won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 2 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself