Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Peden Stadium
Athens, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 116 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
West Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -3.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | West Virginia vs Robert Morris | -40.0W45–3 | 56.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | West Virginia at Ohio | -3.5L10–17 | 58.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | West Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +6.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | West Virginia at Kansas | +12.5L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | West Virginia vs Utah | +13.5L14–48 | 46.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Fri 10/3 | West Virginia at BYU | +19.5L24–38 | 46.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | West Virginia at UCF | +6.5L13–45 | 46.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | West Virginia vs TCU | +16.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | West Virginia at Houston | +13.5W45–35 | 48.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | West Virginia vs Colorado | -6.5W29–22 | 51.5 | W29–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | West Virginia at Arizona State | +10.0L23–25 | 46.5 | L23–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | +24.5L0–49 | 53.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Ohio at Rutgers | +11.5L31–34 | 46.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Ohio vs West Virginia | +3.5W17–10 | 58.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Ohio at Ohio State | +28.0L9–37 | 49.0 | L9–37 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Ohio vs Gardner-Webb | -30.5W52–35 | 55.0 | W52–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Ohio vs Bowling Green | -7.5W35–20 | 49.5 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Ohio at Ball State | -14.0L14–20 | 52.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Ohio vs Northern Illinois | -10.5W48–21 | 41.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Ohio at Eastern Michigan | -11.5W28–21 | 60.5 | W28–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/4 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | -2.5W24–20 | 50.5 | W24–20 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/11 | Ohio at Western Michigan | +1.5L13–17 | 46.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Tue 11/18 | Ohio vs Massachusetts | -34.5W42–14 | 53.5 | W42–14 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Ohio at Buffalo | -7.0W31–26 | 44.5 | W31–26 | O | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Ohio vs UNLV | +6.5W17–10 | 64.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +87.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio
61.3 — 17.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ohio won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 2
#1
DC
John Hauser
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

