West Virginia at Houston Week 10 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Houston Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 40,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,108 mi-1 hr TZ
45 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
19
Houston
32
P&R Line Houston -13
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Houston -13.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Houston has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Houston wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Houston wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Houston -13.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Houston · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Houston 2025 Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.5W27–054.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/6Houston at Rice-13.5W35–938.5W35–9OY
Fri 9/12Houston vs Colorado-4.0W36–2045.5W36–20OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/26Houston at Oregon State-11.5W27–2448.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/4Houston vs Texas Tech+13.5L11–3551.5L11–35UN
Sat 10/11Houston at Oklahoma State-14.5W39–1747.5W39–17OY
Sat 10/18Houston vs Arizona+1.5W31–2847.5W31–28OY
Sat 10/25Houston at Arizona State+7.0W24–1646.5W24–16UY
Sat 11/1Houston vs West Virginia-13.5L35–4548.5L35–45ON
Fri 11/7Houston at UCF+1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Houston vs TCU+1.5L14–1755.5L14–17UN
Sat 11/29Houston at Baylor+2.5W31–2457.5W31–24UY
Sat 12/27Houston vs LSU-1.5W38–3543.5W38–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #118
+0.179
Houston #102
+0.271
Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #99
+0.410
Houston #35
+0.680
Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #26
0.177
Houston #58
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #86
+7.440
Houston #83
+7.454
Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #121
+0.783
Houston #74
+0.824
Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #89
71.7
Houston #33
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Houston Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.3
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.5
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #108
0.14
Houston #23
1.86
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #110
2.14
Houston #70
1.14
Houston +1.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
23.4
Houston #1
54.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #127
67.6
Houston #61
29.5
Houston +31.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Slade Nagle Yr 1 #1
DC Austin Armstrong Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself