Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Houston, TX
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,108 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Houston
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Houston wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Houston wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Houston -13.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Houston
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | West Virginia vs Robert Morris | -40.0W45–3 | 56.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | West Virginia at Ohio | -3.5L10–17 | 58.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | West Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +6.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | West Virginia at Kansas | +12.5L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | West Virginia vs Utah | +13.5L14–48 | 46.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Fri 10/3 | West Virginia at BYU | +19.5L24–38 | 46.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | West Virginia at UCF | +6.5L13–45 | 46.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | West Virginia vs TCU | +16.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | West Virginia at Houston | +13.5W45–35 | 48.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | West Virginia vs Colorado | -6.5W29–22 | 51.5 | W29–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | West Virginia at Arizona State | +10.0L23–25 | 46.5 | L23–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | +24.5L0–49 | 53.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
Houston 2025 Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Houston vs Stephen F. Austin | -24.5W27–0 | 54.5 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Houston at Rice | -13.5W35–9 | 38.5 | W35–9 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Houston vs Colorado | -4.0W36–20 | 45.5 | W36–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/26 | Houston at Oregon State | -11.5W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Houston vs Texas Tech | +13.5L11–35 | 51.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Houston at Oklahoma State | -14.5W39–17 | 47.5 | W39–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Houston vs Arizona | +1.5W31–28 | 47.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Houston at Arizona State | +7.0W24–16 | 46.5 | W24–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Houston vs West Virginia | -13.5L35–45 | 48.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| Fri 11/7 | Houston at UCF | +1.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Houston vs TCU | +1.5L14–17 | 55.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Houston at Baylor | +2.5W31–24 | 57.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Houston vs LSU | -1.5W38–35 | 43.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Houston Edge
Houston +1.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Houston Edge
Houston +31.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Slade Nagle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

