Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Virginia✈ 2,360 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Virginia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Virginia wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Virginia -6.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2025 Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -12.5W48–7 | 57.5 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia at NC State | +3.0L31–35 | 53.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W55–16 | 54.5 | W55–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia vs Stanford | -16.5W48–20 | 48.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Virginia vs Florida State | +7.0W46–38 | 59.5 | W46–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia at Louisville | +6.5W30–27 | 59.5 | W30–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Virginia vs Washington State | -16.5W22–20 | 56.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Virginia at North Carolina | -12.5W17–16 | 51.5 | W17–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia at California | -6.5W31–21 | 52.5 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -7.0L9–16 | 48.5 | L9–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia at Duke | +5.5W34–17 | 59.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W27–7 | 53.5 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Virginia vs Duke | -3.5L20–27 | 58.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Virginia vs Missouri | +4.0W13–7 | 43.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
California 2025 Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | California at Oregon State | +3.0W34–15 | 51.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | California vs Texas Southern | -44.5W35–3 | 54.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | California vs Minnesota | +3.0W27–14 | 41.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | California at San Diego State | -14.0L0–34 | 47.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | California at Boston College | +6.0W28–24 | 54.5 | W28–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | California vs Duke | +3.5L21–45 | 54.5 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | California vs North Carolina | -7.5W21–18 | 45.5 | W21–18 | U | N |
| Fri 10/24 | California at Virginia Tech | +6.5L34–42 | 50.5 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | California vs Virginia | +6.5L21–31 | 52.5 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | California at Louisville | +18.5W29–26 | 48.5 | W29–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | California at Stanford | -4.5L10–31 | 47.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | California vs SMU | +13.5W38–35 | 53.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | California at Hawai'i | +1.5L31–35 | 50.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +3.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Virginia, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
42–49 (46%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Bryan Harsin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓