Fri, Sep 26 2025
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Florida State✈ 619 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Florida State wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Florida State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Florida State -7
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2025 Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Florida State vs Alabama | +13.5W31–17 | 50.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida State vs East Texas A&M | -43.5W77–3 | 56.5 | W77–3 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Florida State vs Kent State | -44.5W66–10 | 56.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Florida State at Virginia | -7.0L38–46 | 59.5 | L38–46 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Florida State vs Miami | +3.5L22–28 | 54.5 | L22–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Florida State vs Pittsburgh | -10.5L31–34 | 56.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Florida State at Stanford | -17.5L13–20 | 55.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Florida State vs Wake Forest | -12.5W42–7 | 50.5 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida State at Clemson | +1.5L10–24 | 56.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida State vs Virginia Tech | -13.5W34–14 | 53.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/21 | Florida State at NC State | -7.0L11–21 | 58.5 | L11–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida State at Florida | -1.5L21–40 | 48.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
Virginia 2025 Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -12.5W48–7 | 57.5 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia at NC State | +3.0L31–35 | 53.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W55–16 | 54.5 | W55–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia vs Stanford | -16.5W48–20 | 48.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Virginia vs Florida State | +7.0W46–38 | 59.5 | W46–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia at Louisville | +6.5W30–27 | 59.5 | W30–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Virginia vs Washington State | -16.5W22–20 | 56.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Virginia at North Carolina | -12.5W17–16 | 51.5 | W17–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia at California | -6.5W31–21 | 52.5 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -7.0L9–16 | 48.5 | L9–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia at Duke | +5.5W34–17 | 59.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W27–7 | 53.5 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Virginia vs Duke | -3.5L20–27 | 58.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Virginia vs Missouri | +4.0W13–7 | 43.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia
49.2 — 15.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Virginia won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
33–27 (55%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Gus Malzahn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 1
#1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓