Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Virginia✈ 393 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisville,
while Game Control favors Virginia.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Virginia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -6.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Virginia
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2025 Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -12.5W48–7 | 57.5 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia at NC State | +3.0L31–35 | 53.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5W55–16 | 54.5 | W55–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia vs Stanford | -16.5W48–20 | 48.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Virginia vs Florida State | +7.0W46–38 | 59.5 | W46–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia at Louisville | +6.5W30–27 | 59.5 | W30–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Virginia vs Washington State | -16.5W22–20 | 56.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Virginia at North Carolina | -12.5W17–16 | 51.5 | W17–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia at California | -6.5W31–21 | 52.5 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -7.0L9–16 | 48.5 | L9–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia at Duke | +5.5W34–17 | 59.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W27–7 | 53.5 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Virginia vs Duke | -3.5L20–27 | 58.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Virginia vs Missouri | +4.0W13–7 | 43.5 | W13–7 | U | Y |
Louisville 2025 Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -37.5W51–17 | 57.5 | W51–17 | O | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -15.0W28–14 | 57.0 | W28–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Louisville vs Bowling Green | -26.5W40–17 | 50.5 | W40–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisville at Pittsburgh | -3.0W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Louisville vs Virginia | -6.5L27–30 | 59.5 | L27–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | Louisville at Miami | +10.5W24–21 | 49.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Louisville vs Boston College | -25.5W38–24 | 54.5 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Louisville at Virginia Tech | -10.5W28–16 | 52.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisville vs California | -18.5L26–29 | 48.5 | L26–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Louisville vs Clemson | -1.5L19–20 | 50.5 | L19–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Louisville at SMU | +4.0L6–38 | 49.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -1.0W41–0 | 45.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/23 | Louisville vs Toledo | -12.5W27–22 | 44.5 | W27–22 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia
21.4 — 43.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Virginia won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
18–8 (69%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 3
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓