Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, CA
·
Turf
·
93,607 cap
Michigan State✈ 1,912 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
USC
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
USC entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
USC wins
Strong
Game Control
67.1%
USC wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
USC -18.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → USC
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Michigan State vs Western Michigan | -18.5W23–6 | 49.5 | W23–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan State vs Boston College | -3.5W42–40 | 45.5 | W42–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan State vs Youngstown State | -23.5W41–24 | 55.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan State at USC | +18.5L31–45 | 55.5 | L31–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan State at Nebraska | +12.5L27–38 | 48.5 | L27–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan State vs UCLA | -7.0L13–38 | 51.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +26.5L13–38 | 49.5 | L13–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +13.5L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +4.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +7.0L10–28 | 48.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan State at Iowa | +17.5L17–20 | 43.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan State vs Maryland | -4.0W38–28 | 49.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
USC 2025 Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | USC vs Missouri State | -34.5W73–13 | 59.5 | W73–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | USC vs Georgia Southern | -29.0W59–20 | 61.5 | W59–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | USC at Purdue | -20.5W33–17 | 59.5 | W33–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | USC vs Michigan State | -18.5W45–31 | 55.5 | W45–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | USC at Illinois | -6.5L32–34 | 62.5 | L32–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | USC vs Michigan | -3.0W31–13 | 58.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | USC at Notre Dame | +10.5L24–34 | 60.5 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | USC at Nebraska | -4.5W21–17 | 59.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Fri 11/7 | USC vs Northwestern | -14.5W38–17 | 54.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | USC vs Iowa | -6.5W26–21 | 48.5 | W26–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | USC at Oregon | +10.5L27–42 | 59.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | USC vs UCLA | -21.0W29–10 | 59.0 | W29–10 | U | N |
| Tue 12/30 | USC vs TCU | -4.5L27–30 | 56.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ USC
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ USC
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ USC
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
USC Edge
USC +4.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
USC Edge
USC +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
USC
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
USC
77.0 — 8.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
USC won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on USC with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 2
#1
USC
Lincoln Riley #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Luke Huard
Yr 1
#1
DC
D'Anton Lynn
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓