Michigan at Michigan State Week 9 College Football Matchup Michigan at Michigan State Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Away
31 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan
29
Michigan State
21
P&R Line Michigan -7.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -13.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -13.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Michigan vs New Mexico-36.5W34–1752.5W34–17UN
Sat 9/6Michigan at Oklahoma+3.0L13–2447.5L13–24UN
Sat 9/13Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.5W63–342.5W63–3OY
Sat 9/20Michigan at Nebraska-1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.5W24–1042.5W24–10UN
Sat 10/11Michigan at USC+3.0L13–3158.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/18Michigan vs Washington-4.5W24–750.5W24–7UY
Sat 10/25Michigan at Michigan State-13.5W31–2047.5W31–20ON
Sat 11/1Michigan vs Purdue-21.0W21–1648.5W21–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan vs Northwestern-10.0W24–2241.5W24–22ON
Sat 11/22Michigan at Maryland-14.0W45–2046.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/29Michigan vs Ohio State+9.5L9–2743.5L9–27UN
Wed 12/31Michigan vs Texas+7.0L27–4150.0L27–41ON
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.5W23–649.5W23–6UN
Sat 9/6Michigan State vs Boston College-3.5W42–4045.5W42–40ON
Sat 9/13Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.5W41–2455.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/20Michigan State at USC+18.5L31–4555.5L31–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan State at Nebraska+12.5L27–3848.5L27–38OY
Sat 10/11Michigan State vs UCLA-7.0L13–3851.5L13–38UN
Sat 10/18Michigan State at Indiana+26.5L13–3849.5L13–38OY
Sat 10/25Michigan State vs Michigan+13.5L20–3147.5L20–31OY
Sat 11/1Michigan State at Minnesota+4.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan State vs Penn State+7.0L10–2848.5L10–28UN
Sat 11/22Michigan State at Iowa+17.5L17–2043.0L17–20UY
Sat 11/29Michigan State vs Maryland-4.0W38–2849.5W38–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan #54
+0.400
Michigan State #97
+0.246
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #96
+0.521
Michigan State #74
+0.454
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan #46
0.167
Michigan State #110
0.135
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #75
+7.549
Michigan State #64
+7.541
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan #47
+0.896
Michigan State #79
+0.840
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan #25
68.9
Michigan State #118
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan
18.3
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Michigan
24.2
Michigan State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan
5.9
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan #40
1.57
Michigan State #113
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #30
0.14
Michigan State #73
1.33
Michigan +1.24
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan #1
55.2
Michigan State #1
37.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #33
32.1
Michigan State #90
46.7
Michigan +18.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself