Michigan State at Minnesota Week 10 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Minnesota Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Huntington Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN · Turf · 50,805 cap
Michigan State✈ 462 mi-1 hr TZ
20 23
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
24
MSU +4.5
Minnesota
23
P&R Line Michigan State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Minnesota -4.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Minnesota has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Minnesota entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -4.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Minnesota · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.5W23–649.5W23–6UN
Sat 9/6Michigan State vs Boston College-3.5W42–4045.5W42–40ON
Sat 9/13Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.5W41–2455.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/20Michigan State at USC+18.5L31–4555.5L31–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan State at Nebraska+12.5L27–3848.5L27–38OY
Sat 10/11Michigan State vs UCLA-7.0L13–3851.5L13–38UN
Sat 10/18Michigan State at Indiana+26.5L13–3849.5L13–38OY
Sat 10/25Michigan State vs Michigan+13.5L20–3147.5L20–31OY
Sat 11/1Michigan State at Minnesota+4.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan State vs Penn State+7.0L10–2848.5L10–28UN
Sat 11/22Michigan State at Iowa+17.5L17–2043.0L17–20UY
Sat 11/29Michigan State vs Maryland-4.0W38–2849.5W38–28OY
Minnesota 2025 Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.5W23–1045.5W23–10UN
Sat 9/6Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.0W66–050.5W66–0OY
Sat 9/13Minnesota at California-3.0L14–2741.5L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/4Minnesota at Ohio State+23.5L3–4242.5L3–42ON
Sat 10/11Minnesota vs Purdue-7.5W27–2049.5W27–20UN
Fri 10/17Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.0W24–647.5W24–6UY
Sat 10/25Minnesota at Iowa+7.5L3–4139.5L3–41ON
Sat 11/1Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/14Minnesota at Oregon+26.5L13–4245.5L13–42ON
Sat 11/22Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.0L35–3841.0L35–38OY
Sat 11/29Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.5W17–738.5W17–7UY
Fri 12/26Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.5W20–1744.5W20–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Minnesota PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State #97
+0.324
Minnesota #94
+0.336
Minnesota Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #74
+0.491
Minnesota #82
+0.540
Minnesota Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State #110
0.135
Minnesota #29
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Minnesota Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #64
+7.591
Minnesota #60
+7.692
Minnesota Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State #79
+0.869
Minnesota #101
+0.851
Michigan State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State #118
72.7
Minnesota #30
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Minnesota Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Minnesota Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Minnesota
6.0
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.8
Minnesota
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Minnesota
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Minnesota Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #113
0.29
Minnesota #103
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #73
1.14
Minnesota #93
1.14
Minnesota +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Minnesota Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
33.9
Minnesota #1
40.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #90
50.1
Minnesota #84
42.5
Minnesota +6.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Minnesota. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
57–39 (59%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Danny Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself