Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Youngstown State✈ 226 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Michigan State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -23.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Youngstown State 2025 Schedule
Youngstown State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Youngstown State at Michigan State | +23.5L24–41 | 55.5 | L24–41 | O | Y |
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Michigan State vs Western Michigan | -18.5W23–6 | 49.5 | W23–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan State vs Boston College | -3.5W42–40 | 45.5 | W42–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan State vs Youngstown State | -23.5W41–24 | 55.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan State at USC | +18.5L31–45 | 55.5 | L31–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan State at Nebraska | +12.5L27–38 | 48.5 | L27–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan State vs UCLA | -7.0L13–38 | 51.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +26.5L13–38 | 49.5 | L13–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +13.5L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +4.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +7.0L10–28 | 48.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan State at Iowa | +17.5L17–20 | 43.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan State vs Maryland | -4.0W38–28 | 49.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Youngstown State Edge
Youngstown State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +31.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓