Fri, Aug 29 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -18.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2025 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +18.5L6–23 | 49.5 | L6–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Michigan vs North Texas | +12.0L30–33 | 56.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Western Michigan at Illinois | +27.5L0–38 | 50.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +13.5W14–13 | 48.5 | W14–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Western Michigan vs Rhode Island | -7.5W47–14 | 45.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Western Michigan at Massachusetts | -12.5W21–3 | 46.5 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -9.5W42–0 | 43.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +2.5L17–26 | 40.5 | L17–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -6.0W24–21 | 43.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/11 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -1.5W17–13 | 46.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/18 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -7.0W35–19 | 39.5 | W35–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/25 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -10.0W31–21 | 49.0 | W31–21 | O | N |
| Sat 12/6 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | -2.5W23–13 | 44.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State | -3.0W41–6 | 47.0 | W41–6 | U | Y |
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Michigan State vs Western Michigan | -18.5W23–6 | 49.5 | W23–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan State vs Boston College | -3.5W42–40 | 45.5 | W42–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan State vs Youngstown State | -23.5W41–24 | 55.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan State at USC | +18.5L31–45 | 55.5 | L31–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan State at Nebraska | +12.5L27–38 | 48.5 | L27–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan State vs UCLA | -7.0L13–38 | 51.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan State at Indiana | +26.5L13–38 | 49.5 | L13–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +13.5L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan State at Minnesota | +4.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +7.0L10–28 | 48.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan State at Iowa | +17.5L17–20 | 43.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan State vs Maryland | -4.0W38–28 | 49.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
10–14 (42%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chris O'Leary
Yr 1
#1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

