Western Michigan at Michigan State Week 1 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Michigan State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 29 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
6 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
18
WMU +18.5
Michigan State
31
P&R Line Michigan State -13.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan State -18.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -18.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2025 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Western Michigan at Michigan State+18.5L6–2349.5L6–23UY
Sat 9/6Western Michigan vs North Texas+12.0L30–3356.0L30–33OY
Sat 9/13Western Michigan at Illinois+27.5L0–3850.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/20Western Michigan vs Toledo+13.5W14–1348.5W14–13UY
Sat 9/27Western Michigan vs Rhode Island-7.5W47–1445.5W47–14OY
Sat 10/4Western Michigan at Massachusetts-12.5W21–346.5W21–3UY
Sat 10/11Western Michigan vs Ball State-9.5W42–043.5W42–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Western Michigan at Miami (OH)+2.5L17–2640.5L17–26ON
Sat 11/1Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-6.0W24–2143.5W24–21ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/11Western Michigan vs Ohio-1.5W17–1346.5W17–13UY
Tue 11/18Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-7.0W35–1939.5W35–19OY
Tue 11/25Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-10.0W31–2149.0W31–21ON
Sat 12/6Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)-2.5W23–1344.5W23–13UY
Fri 12/19Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State-3.0W41–647.0W41–6UY
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.5W23–649.5W23–6UN
Sat 9/6Michigan State vs Boston College-3.5W42–4045.5W42–40ON
Sat 9/13Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.5W41–2455.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/20Michigan State at USC+18.5L31–4555.5L31–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan State at Nebraska+12.5L27–3848.5L27–38OY
Sat 10/11Michigan State vs UCLA-7.0L13–3851.5L13–38UN
Sat 10/18Michigan State at Indiana+26.5L13–3849.5L13–38OY
Sat 10/25Michigan State vs Michigan+13.5L20–3147.5L20–31OY
Sat 11/1Michigan State at Minnesota+4.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan State vs Penn State+7.0L10–2848.5L10–28UN
Sat 11/22Michigan State at Iowa+17.5L17–2043.0L17–20UY
Sat 11/29Michigan State vs Maryland-4.0W38–2849.5W38–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan #103
+0.325
Michigan State #97
+0.185
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #125
+0.417
Michigan State #74
+0.337
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #33
0.173
Michigan State #110
0.135
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #105
+7.258
Michigan State #64
+6.583
Western Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #55
+0.887
Michigan State #79
+0.786
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #13
68.0
Michigan State #118
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.6
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Michigan State
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
20.1
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #110
0.00
Michigan State #113
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #31
0.00
Michigan State #73
0.00
Western Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
0.0
Michigan State #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #57
0.0
Michigan State #90
0.0
Western Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 2 #1
DC Chris O'Leary Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself