Maryland at Michigan State Week 14 College Football Matchup Maryland at Michigan State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Ford Field Detroit, MI · Turf · 65,000 cap
Maryland✈ 394 miSame TZ Michigan State✈ 78 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
28 38
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Maryland
23
Michigan State
27
P&R Line Michigan State -3.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Michigan State -4.0 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Maryland has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Maryland entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Maryland wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Maryland wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -4.0
O/U 49.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Maryland 2025 Schedule
Maryland's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Maryland vs Florida Atlantic-16.5W39–757.5W39–7UY
Fri 9/5Maryland vs Northern Illinois-17.0W20–944.5W20–9UN
Sat 9/13Maryland vs Towson-28.5W44–1753.5W44–17ON
Sat 9/20Maryland at Wisconsin+10.5W27–1044.5W27–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Maryland vs Washington+5.5L20–2452.5L20–24UY
Sat 10/11Maryland vs Nebraska+7.0L31–3447.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/18Maryland at UCLA+3.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Maryland vs Indiana+21.0L10–5550.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/8Maryland at Rutgers+1.5L20–3556.5L20–35UN
Sat 11/15Maryland at Illinois+15.5L6–2451.5L6–24UN
Sat 11/22Maryland vs Michigan+14.0L20–4546.5L20–45ON
Sat 11/29Maryland vs Michigan State+4.0L28–3849.5L28–38ON
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.5W23–649.5W23–6UN
Sat 9/6Michigan State vs Boston College-3.5W42–4045.5W42–40ON
Sat 9/13Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.5W41–2455.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/20Michigan State at USC+18.5L31–4555.5L31–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan State at Nebraska+12.5L27–3848.5L27–38OY
Sat 10/11Michigan State vs UCLA-7.0L13–3851.5L13–38UN
Sat 10/18Michigan State at Indiana+26.5L13–3849.5L13–38OY
Sat 10/25Michigan State vs Michigan+13.5L20–3147.5L20–31OY
Sat 11/1Michigan State at Minnesota+4.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan State vs Penn State+7.0L10–2848.5L10–28UN
Sat 11/22Michigan State at Iowa+17.5L17–2043.0L17–20UY
Sat 11/29Michigan State vs Maryland-4.0W38–2849.5W38–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Maryland PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Maryland #85
+0.358
Michigan State #97
+0.259
Maryland Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Maryland #77
+0.550
Michigan State #74
+0.401
Maryland Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Maryland #104
0.141
Michigan State #110
0.135
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Maryland Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Maryland #100
+7.299
Michigan State #64
+7.347
Michigan State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Maryland #100
+0.854
Michigan State #79
+0.859
Michigan State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Maryland #54
70.5
Michigan State #118
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Maryland Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Maryland Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Maryland
4.5
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Maryland
17.5
Michigan State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Maryland
13.0
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Maryland Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Maryland #94
0.80
Michigan State #113
0.30
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Maryland #120
1.70
Michigan State #73
1.00
Maryland +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Maryland Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Maryland #1
48.6
Michigan State #1
31.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Maryland #80
38.0
Michigan State #90
49.0
Maryland +16.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
84.5 — 9.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Maryland with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
33–41 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Pep Hamilton Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself