Matchup Prediction
Nebraska
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Nebraska entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Nebraska wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Nebraska wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Michigan -1.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Michigan
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Michigan vs New Mexico | -36.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan at Oklahoma | +3.0L13–24 | 47.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan vs Central Michigan | -27.5W63–3 | 42.5 | W63–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan at Nebraska | -1.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan vs Wisconsin | -17.5W24–10 | 42.5 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan at USC | +3.0L13–31 | 58.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan vs Washington | -4.5W24–7 | 50.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan at Michigan State | -13.5W31–20 | 47.5 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan vs Purdue | -21.0W21–16 | 48.5 | W21–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -10.0W24–22 | 41.5 | W24–22 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan at Maryland | -14.0W45–20 | 46.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan vs Ohio State | +9.5L9–27 | 43.5 | L9–27 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Michigan vs Texas | +7.0L27–41 | 50.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
Nebraska 2025 Schedule
Nebraska's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Nebraska vs Cincinnati | -6.5W20–17 | 52.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Nebraska vs Akron | -34.0W68–0 | 47.5 | W68–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Nebraska vs Houston Christian | -48.5W59–7 | 58.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Nebraska vs Michigan | +1.5L27–30 | 47.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Nebraska vs Michigan State | -12.5W38–27 | 48.5 | W38–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Nebraska at Maryland | -7.0W34–31 | 47.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Fri 10/17 | Nebraska at Minnesota | -7.0L6–24 | 47.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Nebraska vs Northwestern | -7.5W28–21 | 44.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Nebraska vs USC | +4.5L17–21 | 59.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Nebraska at UCLA | +1.5W28–21 | 45.5 | W28–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Nebraska at Penn State | +7.5L10–37 | 45.5 | L10–37 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Nebraska vs Iowa | +5.5L16–40 | 38.5 | L16–40 | O | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Nebraska vs Utah | +13.5L22–44 | 51.5 | L22–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nebraska Edge
Nebraska +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nebraska Edge
Nebraska +19.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
15.6 — 63.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Nebraska with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Don Martindale
Yr 2
#1
Nebraska
Matt Rhule #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dana Holgorsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Butler
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓