Sat, Nov 29 2025
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
·
Turf
·
107,601 cap
Ohio State✈ 160 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Ohio State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Ohio State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -9.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2025 Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Ohio State vs Texas | -1.5W14–7 | 46.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Ohio State vs Grambling | -55.5W70–0 | 62.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Ohio State vs Ohio | -28.0W37–9 | 49.0 | W37–9 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Ohio State at Washington | -9.5W24–6 | 52.5 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Ohio State vs Minnesota | -23.5W42–3 | 42.5 | W42–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Ohio State at Illinois | -15.5W34–16 | 51.5 | W34–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Ohio State at Wisconsin | -24.5W34–0 | 41.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Ohio State vs Penn State | -17.5W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Ohio State at Purdue | -29.5W34–10 | 49.5 | W34–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Ohio State vs UCLA | -33.5W48–10 | 46.5 | W48–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Ohio State vs Rutgers | -29.0W42–9 | 54.0 | W42–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Ohio State at Michigan | -9.5W27–9 | 43.5 | W27–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -5.5L10–13 | 48.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Ohio State vs Miami | -7.5L14–24 | 39.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Michigan vs New Mexico | -36.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan at Oklahoma | +3.0L13–24 | 47.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan vs Central Michigan | -27.5W63–3 | 42.5 | W63–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan at Nebraska | -1.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan vs Wisconsin | -17.5W24–10 | 42.5 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan at USC | +3.0L13–31 | 58.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan vs Washington | -4.5W24–7 | 50.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan at Michigan State | -13.5W31–20 | 47.5 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan vs Purdue | -21.0W21–16 | 48.5 | W21–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -10.0W24–22 | 41.5 | W24–22 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan at Maryland | -14.0W45–20 | 46.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan vs Ohio State | +9.5L9–27 | 43.5 | L9–27 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Michigan vs Texas | +7.0L27–41 | 50.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +1.34
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +23.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio State
26.7 — 58.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio State won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
66–10 (87%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Brian Hartline
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Patricia
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Don Martindale
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓