Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
·
Turf
·
107,601 cap
Washington✈ 1,900 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Washington wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Washington wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan -4.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2025 Schedule
Washington's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Washington vs Colorado State | -20.5W38–21 | 52.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Washington vs UC Davis | -28.0W70–10 | 54.0 | W70–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Washington at Washington State | -21.0W59–24 | 51.5 | W59–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Washington vs Ohio State | +9.5L6–24 | 52.5 | L6–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Washington at Maryland | -5.5W24–20 | 52.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Washington vs Rutgers | -9.5W38–19 | 62.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Washington at Michigan | +4.5L7–24 | 50.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Washington vs Illinois | -3.5W42–25 | 54.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Washington at Wisconsin | -10.5L10–13 | 44.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Washington vs Purdue | -14.5W49–13 | 51.5 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Washington at UCLA | -10.5W48–14 | 51.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Washington vs Oregon | +6.5L14–26 | 51.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/13 | Washington vs Boise State | -9.5W38–10 | 55.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Michigan vs New Mexico | -36.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Michigan at Oklahoma | +3.0L13–24 | 47.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Michigan vs Central Michigan | -27.5W63–3 | 42.5 | W63–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Michigan at Nebraska | -1.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Michigan vs Wisconsin | -17.5W24–10 | 42.5 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Michigan at USC | +3.0L13–31 | 58.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Michigan vs Washington | -4.5W24–7 | 50.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Michigan at Michigan State | -13.5W31–20 | 47.5 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Michigan vs Purdue | -21.0W21–16 | 48.5 | W21–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -10.0W24–22 | 41.5 | W24–22 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Michigan at Maryland | -14.0W45–20 | 46.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Michigan vs Ohio State | +9.5L9–27 | 43.5 | L9–27 | U | N |
| Wed 12/31 | Michigan vs Texas | +7.0L27–41 | 50.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington Edge
Washington +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +1.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
60.1 — 12.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jimmie Dougherty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Don Martindale
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓