Michigan at Northwestern Week 12 College Football Matchup Michigan at Northwestern Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Wrigley Field Chicago, IL · Turf
Michigan✈ 417 mi-1 hr TZ Northwestern✈ 557 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
24 22
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan
27
Northwestern
17
P&R Line Michigan -10
P&R Total O/U 43.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -10 · O/U 41.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northwestern, while Game Control favors Michigan. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan -10
O/U 41.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Michigan Coming off BYE
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Michigan vs New Mexico-36.5W34–1752.5W34–17UN
Sat 9/6Michigan at Oklahoma+3.0L13–2447.5L13–24UN
Sat 9/13Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.5W63–342.5W63–3OY
Sat 9/20Michigan at Nebraska-1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.5W24–1042.5W24–10UN
Sat 10/11Michigan at USC+3.0L13–3158.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/18Michigan vs Washington-4.5W24–750.5W24–7UY
Sat 10/25Michigan at Michigan State-13.5W31–2047.5W31–20ON
Sat 11/1Michigan vs Purdue-21.0W21–1648.5W21–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan vs Northwestern-10.0W24–2241.5W24–22ON
Sat 11/22Michigan at Maryland-14.0W45–2046.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/29Michigan vs Ohio State+9.5L9–2743.5L9–27UN
Wed 12/31Michigan vs Texas+7.0L27–4150.0L27–41ON
Northwestern 2025 Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northwestern at Tulane+6.5L3–2347.5L3–23UN
Fri 9/5Northwestern vs Western Illinois-30.5W42–748.5W42–7OY
Sat 9/13Northwestern vs Oregon+25.5L14–3450.5L14–34UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Northwestern vs UCLA-6.0W17–1445.5W17–14UN
Sat 10/4Northwestern vs UL Monroe-12.5W42–743.5W42–7OY
Sat 10/11Northwestern at Penn State+20.5W22–2146.5W22–21UY
Sat 10/18Northwestern vs Purdue-3.0W19–047.5W19–0UY
Sat 10/25Northwestern at Nebraska+7.5L21–2844.5L21–28OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/7Northwestern at USC+14.5L17–3854.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/15Northwestern vs Michigan+10.0L22–2441.5L22–24OY
Sat 11/22Northwestern vs Minnesota-4.0W38–3541.0W38–35ON
Sat 11/29Northwestern at Illinois+7.0L13–2044.5L13–20UY
Fri 12/26Northwestern vs Central Michigan-13.5W34–743.5W34–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan #54
+0.361
Northwestern #83
+0.273
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #96
+0.437
Northwestern #85
+0.431
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan #46
0.167
Northwestern #83
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan #75
+7.015
Northwestern #116
+7.002
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan #47
+0.896
Northwestern #57
+0.855
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan #25
68.9
Northwestern #82
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan
18.3
Northwestern
-0.6
Offense Rating
Michigan
24.2
Northwestern
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan
5.9
Northwestern
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Northwestern Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan #40
1.22
Northwestern #26
1.63
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #30
0.11
Northwestern #44
0.88
Northwestern +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan #1
58.5
Northwestern #1
44.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan #33
27.5
Northwestern #77
42.8
Michigan +13.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northwestern
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
22.1 — 43.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 2 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself