Central Michigan at Michigan Week 3 College Football Matchup Central Michigan at Michigan Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI · Turf · 107,601 cap
Central Michigan✈ 104 miSame TZ
3 63
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Central Michigan
10
CMU +27.5
Michigan
35
P&R Line Michigan -25.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -27.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Michigan -27.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Central Michigan · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Central Michigan 3rd straight Road Game
Central Michigan 2025 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Central Michigan at San José State+11.5W16–1450.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/6Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.5L17–4548.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/13Central Michigan at Michigan+27.5L3–6342.5L3–63ON
Sat 9/20Central Michigan vs Wagner-29.0W49–1047.0W49–10OY
Sat 9/27Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-3.0W24–1355.5W24–13UY
Sat 10/4Central Michigan at Akron-7.0L22–2847.5L22–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Central Michigan at Bowling Green+3.0W27–643.5W27–6UY
Sat 10/25Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-16.5W38–1346.5W38–13OY
Sat 11/1Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.0L21–2443.5L21–24OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Central Michigan vs Buffalo-2.5W38–1944.5W38–19OY
Wed 11/19Central Michigan at Kent State-7.5W28–1650.5W28–16UY
Sat 11/29Central Michigan vs Toledo+11.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Fri 12/26Central Michigan vs Northwestern+13.5L7–3443.5L7–34UN
Michigan 2025 Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Michigan vs New Mexico-36.5W34–1752.5W34–17UN
Sat 9/6Michigan at Oklahoma+3.0L13–2447.5L13–24UN
Sat 9/13Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.5W63–342.5W63–3OY
Sat 9/20Michigan at Nebraska-1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.5W24–1042.5W24–10UN
Sat 10/11Michigan at USC+3.0L13–3158.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/18Michigan vs Washington-4.5W24–750.5W24–7UY
Sat 10/25Michigan at Michigan State-13.5W31–2047.5W31–20ON
Sat 11/1Michigan vs Purdue-21.0W21–1648.5W21–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan vs Northwestern-10.0W24–2241.5W24–22ON
Sat 11/22Michigan at Maryland-14.0W45–2046.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/29Michigan vs Ohio State+9.5L9–2743.5L9–27UN
Wed 12/31Michigan vs Texas+7.0L27–4150.0L27–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Central Michigan #71
+0.293
Michigan #54
+0.290
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #22
+0.615
Michigan #96
+0.391
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #42
0.169
Michigan #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #80
+7.391
Michigan #75
+6.779
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #89
+0.834
Michigan #47
+0.840
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #68
71.0
Michigan #25
68.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Central Michigan
-4.9
Michigan
18.3
Offense Rating
Central Michigan
15.1
Michigan
24.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Central Michigan
20.0
Michigan
6.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Central Michigan #134
0.50
Michigan #40
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #113
1.00
Michigan #30
0.00
Michigan +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Central Michigan #1
22.0
Michigan #1
50.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #53
62.9
Michigan #33
47.1
Michigan +28.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
94.9 — 2.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 60
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Matt Drinkall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chapin Yr 1 #1
DC Sean Cronin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself