Fri, Nov 29 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Canvas Stadium
Fort Collins, CO
·
Turf
·
41,000 cap
Utah State✈ 359 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State,
while Game Control favors Colorado State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Colorado State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado State -5.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Colorado State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Utah State vs Robert Morris | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Utah State at USC | +30.5L0–48 | 62.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Utah State vs Utah | +20.5L21–38 | 43.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Utah State at Temple | -6.5L29–45 | 53.5 | L29–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Utah State at Boise State | +28.0L30–62 | 66.5 | L30–62 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | Utah State vs UNLV | +19.0L34–50 | 67.5 | L34–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Utah State vs New Mexico | +1.0L45–50 | 78.5 | L45–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Utah State at Wyoming | -2.5W27–25 | 57.0 | W27–25 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Utah State at Washington State | +20.5L28–49 | 69.0 | L28–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Utah State vs Hawai'i | +2.5W55–10 | 62.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Utah State vs San Diego State | -5.0W41–20 | 60.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Utah State at Colorado State | +5.5L37–42 | 56.5 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Colorado State 2024 Schedule
Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Colorado State at Texas | +35.5L0–52 | 59.0 | L0–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -31.0W38–17 | 52.5 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Colorado State vs Colorado | +7.5L9–28 | 58.5 | L9–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Colorado State vs UTEP | -8.5W27–17 | 49.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Colorado State at Oregon State | +10.0L31–39 | 47.0 | L31–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Colorado State vs San José State | -2.5W31–24 | 55.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Colorado State at Air Force | -6.0W21–13 | 43.5 | W21–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Colorado State vs New Mexico | -3.5W17–6 | 62.0 | W17–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Colorado State at Nevada | -2.0W38–21 | 45.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Colorado State vs Wyoming | -8.5W24–10 | 47.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Colorado State at Fresno State | +3.5L22–28 | 43.5 | L22–28 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Colorado State vs Utah State | -5.5W42–37 | 56.5 | W42–37 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Colorado State vs Miami (OH) | +1.0L17–43 | 42.5 | L17–43 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +24.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Colorado State
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah State
20.9 — 62.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Colorado State won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 3
#1
DC
Freddie Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓