LSU at South Carolina Week 3 College Football Matchup LSU at South Carolina Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, SC · Turf · 80,250 cap
LSU✈ 642 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
36 33
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
LSU
24
SC +7
South Carolina
28
P&R Line South Carolina -4
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas LSU -7 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
South Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor South Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
LSU -7
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → South Carolina · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
LSU 2024 Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1LSU vs USC-4.0L20–2766.5L20–27UN
Sat 9/7LSU vs Nicholls-50.5W44–2162.0W44–21ON
Sat 9/14LSU at South Carolina-7.0W36–3350.0W36–33ON
Sat 9/21LSU vs UCLA-21.5W34–1756.5W34–17UN
Sat 9/28LSU vs South Alabama-21.0W42–1064.5W42–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12LSU vs Ole Miss+3.5W29–2664.5W29–26UY
Sat 10/19LSU at Arkansas-3.0W34–1057.0W34–10UY
Sat 10/26LSU at Texas A&M+2.0L23–3854.5L23–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9LSU vs Alabama+2.5L13–4257.5L13–42UN
Sat 11/16LSU at Florida-3.0L16–2757.0L16–27UN
Sat 11/23LSU vs Vanderbilt-10.0W24–1753.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30LSU vs Oklahoma-4.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Tue 12/31LSU vs Baylor+3.0W44–3162.5W44–31OY
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Carolina vs Old Dominion-20.5W23–1949.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/7South Carolina at Kentucky+9.5W31–641.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/14South Carolina vs LSU+7.0L33–3650.0L33–36OY
Sat 9/21South Carolina vs Akron-25.0W50–742.0W50–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5South Carolina vs Ole Miss+10.0L3–2753.0L3–27UN
Sat 10/12South Carolina at Alabama+21.0L25–2750.0L25–27OY
Sat 10/19South Carolina at Oklahoma-1.0W35–940.5W35–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2South Carolina vs Texas A&M+3.0W44–2043.5W44–20OY
Sat 11/9South Carolina at Vanderbilt-6.0W28–744.5W28–7UY
Sat 11/16South Carolina vs Missouri-10.5W34–3042.5W34–30ON
Sat 11/23South Carolina vs Wofford-42.5W56–1249.5W56–12OY
Sat 11/30South Carolina at Clemson+2.5W17–1448.5W17–14UY
Tue 12/31South Carolina vs Illinois-9.5L17–2150.0L17–21UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
South Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
LSU #30
+0.325
South Carolina #48
+0.430
South Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
LSU #37
+0.487
South Carolina #23
+0.612
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
LSU #30
0.184
South Carolina #21
0.189
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
LSU #60
+7.176
South Carolina #62
+7.407
South Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
LSU #38
+0.870
South Carolina #58
+0.848
LSU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
LSU #94
72.1
South Carolina #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
LSU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
LSU
16.9
South Carolina
5.3
Offense Rating
LSU
24.9
South Carolina
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
LSU
8.0
South Carolina
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
LSU #13
0.00
South Carolina #59
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
LSU #24
0.00
South Carolina #38
1.50
South Carolina +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? South Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
LSU #1
55.8
South Carolina #1
61.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
LSU #30
19.7
South Carolina #23
18.6
South Carolina +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
66.4 — 17.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
LSU won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on South Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
20–7 (74%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Joe Sloan Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Baker Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Dowell Loggains Yr 2 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself