Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Norman, OK
·
Turf
·
84,389 cap
South Carolina✈ 937 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
South Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -1
O/U 40.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → South Carolina
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Carolina vs Old Dominion | -20.5W23–19 | 49.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Carolina at Kentucky | +9.5W31–6 | 41.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | South Carolina vs LSU | +7.0L33–36 | 50.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | South Carolina vs Akron | -25.0W50–7 | 42.0 | W50–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | South Carolina vs Ole Miss | +10.0L3–27 | 53.0 | L3–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | South Carolina at Alabama | +21.0L25–27 | 50.0 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | South Carolina at Oklahoma | -1.0W35–9 | 40.5 | W35–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +3.0W44–20 | 43.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | -6.0W28–7 | 44.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | South Carolina vs Missouri | -10.5W34–30 | 42.5 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | South Carolina vs Wofford | -42.5W56–12 | 49.5 | W56–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | South Carolina at Clemson | +2.5W17–14 | 48.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | South Carolina vs Illinois | -9.5L17–21 | 50.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
Oklahoma 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Oklahoma vs Temple | -42.5W51–3 | 59.5 | W51–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Oklahoma vs Houston | -27.5W16–12 | 48.5 | W16–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oklahoma vs Tulane | -13.5W34–19 | 48.5 | W34–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Oklahoma vs Tennessee | +6.0L15–25 | 57.0 | L15–25 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Oklahoma at Auburn | +2.0W27–21 | 43.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Oklahoma vs Texas | +16.5L3–34 | 48.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Oklahoma vs South Carolina | +1.0L9–35 | 40.5 | L9–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Oklahoma at Ole Miss | +19.0L14–26 | 50.0 | L14–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Oklahoma vs Maine | -37.5W59–14 | 48.5 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Oklahoma at Missouri | -3.5L23–30 | 41.5 | L23–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Oklahoma vs Alabama | +14.0W24–3 | 47.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Oklahoma at LSU | +4.5L17–37 | 47.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Oklahoma vs Navy | +1.0L20–21 | 44.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dowell Loggains
Yr 2
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#1
Oklahoma
Brent Venables #1
16–10 (62%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Seth Littrell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓