Sat, Oct 12 2024
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, AL
·
Turf
·
101,821 cap
South Carolina✈ 379 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Alabama -21
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Alabama
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Carolina vs Old Dominion | -20.5W23–19 | 49.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Carolina at Kentucky | +9.5W31–6 | 41.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | South Carolina vs LSU | +7.0L33–36 | 50.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | South Carolina vs Akron | -25.0W50–7 | 42.0 | W50–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | South Carolina vs Ole Miss | +10.0L3–27 | 53.0 | L3–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | South Carolina at Alabama | +21.0L25–27 | 50.0 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | South Carolina at Oklahoma | -1.0W35–9 | 40.5 | W35–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +3.0W44–20 | 43.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | -6.0W28–7 | 44.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | South Carolina vs Missouri | -10.5W34–30 | 42.5 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | South Carolina vs Wofford | -42.5W56–12 | 49.5 | W56–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | South Carolina at Clemson | +2.5W17–14 | 48.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | South Carolina vs Illinois | -9.5L17–21 | 50.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Alabama vs Western Kentucky | -31.0W63–0 | 60.0 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Alabama vs South Florida | -33.5W42–16 | 65.5 | W42–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Alabama at Wisconsin | -15.5W42–10 | 51.0 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Alabama vs Georgia | +2.0W41–34 | 50.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Alabama at Vanderbilt | -23.5L35–40 | 53.5 | L35–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Alabama vs South Carolina | -21.0W27–25 | 50.0 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Alabama at Tennessee | -3.5L17–24 | 57.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Alabama vs Missouri | -16.0W34–0 | 51.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Alabama at LSU | -2.5W42–13 | 57.5 | W42–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Alabama vs Mercer | -42.0W52–7 | 58.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Alabama at Oklahoma | -14.0L3–24 | 47.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Alabama vs Auburn | -10.5W28–14 | 50.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Alabama vs Michigan | -16.5L13–19 | 45.5 | L13–19 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Alabama
52.7 — 25.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Alabama. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dowell Loggains
Yr 2
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#1
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Wommack
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

