South Carolina at Alabama Week 7 College Football Matchup South Carolina at Alabama Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL · Turf · 101,821 cap
South Carolina✈ 379 mi-1 hr TZ
25 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Carolina
21
SC +21
Alabama
29
P&R Line Alabama -7.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Alabama -21 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Alabama has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Alabama -21
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Alabama · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Carolina vs Old Dominion-20.5W23–1949.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/7South Carolina at Kentucky+9.5W31–641.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/14South Carolina vs LSU+7.0L33–3650.0L33–36OY
Sat 9/21South Carolina vs Akron-25.0W50–742.0W50–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5South Carolina vs Ole Miss+10.0L3–2753.0L3–27UN
Sat 10/12South Carolina at Alabama+21.0L25–2750.0L25–27OY
Sat 10/19South Carolina at Oklahoma-1.0W35–940.5W35–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2South Carolina vs Texas A&M+3.0W44–2043.5W44–20OY
Sat 11/9South Carolina at Vanderbilt-6.0W28–744.5W28–7UY
Sat 11/16South Carolina vs Missouri-10.5W34–3042.5W34–30ON
Sat 11/23South Carolina vs Wofford-42.5W56–1249.5W56–12OY
Sat 11/30South Carolina at Clemson+2.5W17–1448.5W17–14UY
Tue 12/31South Carolina vs Illinois-9.5L17–2150.0L17–21UN
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Alabama vs Western Kentucky-31.0W63–060.0W63–0OY
Sat 9/7Alabama vs South Florida-33.5W42–1665.5W42–16UN
Sat 9/14Alabama at Wisconsin-15.5W42–1051.0W42–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Alabama vs Georgia+2.0W41–3450.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/5Alabama at Vanderbilt-23.5L35–4053.5L35–40ON
Sat 10/12Alabama vs South Carolina-21.0W27–2550.0W27–25ON
Sat 10/19Alabama at Tennessee-3.5L17–2457.5L17–24UN
Sat 10/26Alabama vs Missouri-16.0W34–051.5W34–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Alabama at LSU-2.5W42–1357.5W42–13UY
Sat 11/16Alabama vs Mercer-42.0W52–758.5W52–7OY
Sat 11/23Alabama at Oklahoma-14.0L3–2447.0L3–24UN
Sat 11/30Alabama vs Auburn-10.5W28–1450.5W28–14UY
Tue 12/31Alabama vs Michigan-16.5L13–1945.5L13–19UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Carolina #48
+0.269
Alabama #44
+0.311
Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #23
+0.486
Alabama #59
+0.423
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Carolina #21
0.189
Alabama #41
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #62
+6.814
Alabama #8
+7.894
Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Carolina #58
+0.808
Alabama #34
+0.873
Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Carolina #41
69.7
Alabama #54
70.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Carolina
5.3
Alabama
17.4
Offense Rating
South Carolina
18.3
Alabama
21.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Carolina
13.0
Alabama
4.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Alabama Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Carolina #59
1.20
Alabama #39
1.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #38
1.20
Alabama #16
0.80
Alabama +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Alabama Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Carolina #1
55.3
Alabama #1
61.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #23
30.3
Alabama #19
23.3
Alabama +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Alabama
52.7 — 25.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Alabama. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Dowell Loggains Yr 2 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Sheridan Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Wommack Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself