Fri, Aug 30 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Skelly Field at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Tulsa, OK
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Northwestern State✈ 345 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Tulsa wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tulsa -37.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Northwestern State 2024 Schedule
Northwestern State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Northwestern State at Tulsa | +37.5L28–62 | 55.5 | L28–62 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/12 | Northwestern State at South Alabama | +36.5L10–87 | 60.5 | L10–87 | O | N |
Tulsa 2024 Schedule
Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Tulsa vs Northwestern State | -37.5W62–28 | 55.5 | W62–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Tulsa at Arkansas State | +9.5L24–28 | 65.5 | L24–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Tulsa vs Oklahoma State | +17.5L10–45 | 62.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Tulsa at Louisiana Tech | +3.0W23–20 | 56.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Tulsa at North Texas | +7.0L20–52 | 65.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Tulsa vs Army | +13.5L7–49 | 50.5 | L7–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Tulsa at Temple | +3.5L10–20 | 51.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Tulsa vs UTSA | +9.5W46–45 | 52.5 | W46–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Tulsa at UAB | +2.5L21–59 | 57.5 | L21–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/14 | Tulsa vs East Carolina | +16.0L31–38 | 63.5 | L31–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Tulsa at South Florida | +17.5L30–63 | 60.0 | L30–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic | +2.5L16–63 | 57.5 | L16–63 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern State Edge
Northwestern State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulsa Edge
Tulsa +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓