Sun, Oct 13 2024
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
Marshall✈ 416 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Southern,
while Game Control favors Marshall.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia Southern wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Marshall wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Southern -1
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2024 Schedule
Marshall's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Marshall vs Stony Brook | -32.5W45–3 | 56.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Marshall at Virginia Tech | +20.5L14–31 | 52.5 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Marshall at Ohio State | +40.0L14–49 | 57.0 | L14–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Marshall vs Western Michigan | -3.5W27–20 | 53.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Marshall vs App State | -3.0W52–37 | 56.5 | W52–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Marshall at Georgia Southern | +1.0L23–24 | 58.5 | L23–24 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/17 | Marshall vs Georgia State | -9.5W35–20 | 51.5 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Marshall vs UL Monroe | -10.5W28–23 | 48.0 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Marshall at Southern Miss | -13.5W37–3 | 53.5 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Marshall vs Coastal Carolina | -7.5W31–19 | 57.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Marshall at Old Dominion | +3.0W42–35 | 51.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Marshall at James Madison | +2.5W35–33 | 52.5 | W35–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Marshall at Louisiana | +5.0W31–3 | 58.0 | W31–3 | U | Y |
Georgia Southern 2024 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Southern vs Boise State | +13.0L45–56 | 57.5 | L45–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Southern at Nevada | +1.5W20–17 | 56.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State | -27.5W42–14 | 52.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Southern at Ole Miss | +35.0L13–52 | 68.5 | L13–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia Southern at Georgia State | +3.5W38–21 | 57.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Southern vs Marshall | -1.0W24–23 | 58.5 | W24–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Southern vs James Madison | +9.5W28–14 | 58.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/24 | Georgia Southern at Old Dominion | -1.0L19–47 | 52.0 | L19–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | +5.5W34–30 | 60.0 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia Southern vs Troy | -7.0L20–28 | 54.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina | +2.0W26–6 | 59.5 | W26–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Georgia Southern vs App State | -2.5W29–20 | 60.5 | W29–20 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/19 | Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston | -3.5L26–31 | 48.0 | L26–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Marshall
8.4 — 78.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Southern won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
22–17 (56%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Seth Doege
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jason Semore
Yr 2
#1
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
12–14 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓