South Florida at Alabama Week 2 College Football Matchup South Florida at Alabama Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL · Turf · 101,821 cap
South Florida✈ 469 mi-1 hr TZ
16 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Florida
18
Alabama
43
P&R Line Alabama -25.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Alabama -33.5 · O/U 65.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Alabama wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Alabama -33.5
O/U 65.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Alabama · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Alabama 2nd straight Home Game
South Florida 2024 Schedule
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman-22.5
Sat 9/7South Florida at Alabama+33.5L16–4265.5L16–42UY
Sat 9/14South Florida at Southern Miss-13.0W49–2458.5W49–24OY
Sat 9/21South Florida vs Miami+17.0L15–5064.5L15–50ON
Sat 9/28South Florida at Tulane+4.0L10–4560.5L10–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12South Florida vs Memphis+10.0L3–2161.0L3–21UN
Sat 10/19South Florida vs UAB-14.0W35–2555.5W35–25ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1South Florida at Florida Atlantic-1.5W44–2148.0W44–21OY
Sat 11/9South Florida vs Navy+4.5L7–2859.5L7–28UN
Sat 11/16South Florida at Charlotte+1.5W59–2453.5W59–24OY
Sat 11/23South Florida vs Tulsa-17.5W63–3060.0W63–30OY
Sat 11/30South Florida at Rice-5.5L28–3553.5L28–35ON
Tue 12/24South Florida vs San José State-1.5W41–3966.5W41–39OY
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Alabama vs Western Kentucky-31.0W63–060.0W63–0OY
Sat 9/7Alabama vs South Florida-33.5W42–1665.5W42–16UN
Sat 9/14Alabama at Wisconsin-15.5W42–1051.0W42–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Alabama vs Georgia+2.0W41–3450.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/5Alabama at Vanderbilt-23.5L35–4053.5L35–40ON
Sat 10/12Alabama vs South Carolina-21.0W27–2550.0W27–25ON
Sat 10/19Alabama at Tennessee-3.5L17–2457.5L17–24UN
Sat 10/26Alabama vs Missouri-16.0W34–051.5W34–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Alabama at LSU-2.5W42–1357.5W42–13UY
Sat 11/16Alabama vs Mercer-42.0W52–758.5W52–7OY
Sat 11/23Alabama at Oklahoma-14.0L3–2447.0L3–24UN
Sat 11/30Alabama vs Auburn-10.5W28–1450.5W28–14UY
Tue 12/31Alabama vs Michigan-16.5L13–1945.5L13–19UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Florida #83
+0.213
Alabama #44
+0.398
Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #113
+0.251
Alabama #59
+0.547
Alabama Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Florida #15
0.197
Alabama #41
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Florida Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #74
+6.727
Alabama #8
+8.705
Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Florida #118
+0.755
Alabama #34
+0.844
Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Florida #32
69.3
Alabama #54
70.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Florida Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Florida
1.9
Alabama
17.4
Offense Rating
South Florida
18.7
Alabama
21.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Florida
16.8
Alabama
4.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Florida Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Florida #75
0.00
Alabama #39
5.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #106
0.00
Alabama #16
0.00
South Florida +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Alabama Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Florida #1
86.5
Alabama #1
89.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #108
4.7
Alabama #19
4.0
Alabama +2.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Alabama
56.6 — 16.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 26
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Alabama, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joel Gordon Yr 2 #1
DC Todd Orlando Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Sheridan Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Wommack Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself