Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
·
25,513 cap
Hawai'i✈ 3,010 mi+4 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State,
while Game Control favors Hawai'i.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Hawai'i -2.5
O/U 62.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Hawai'i
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2024 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Hawai'i vs Delaware State | -38.5W35–14 | 57.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 8/31 | Hawai'i vs UCLA | +13.5L13–16 | 55.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Hawai'i at Sam Houston | +3.5L13–31 | 48.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa | -10.0W36–7 | 46.0 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Hawai'i at San Diego State | +1.5L24–27 | 47.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Hawai'i vs Boise State | +21.0L7–28 | 60.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Hawai'i at Washington State | +18.5L10–42 | 55.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Hawai'i vs Nevada | -2.5W34–13 | 42.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Hawai'i at Fresno State | +12.0W21–20 | 45.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Hawai'i vs UNLV | +12.0L27–29 | 51.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Hawai'i at Utah State | -2.5L10–55 | 62.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | +6.5W38–30 | 61.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Utah State vs Robert Morris | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Utah State at USC | +30.5L0–48 | 62.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Utah State vs Utah | +20.5L21–38 | 43.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Utah State at Temple | -6.5L29–45 | 53.5 | L29–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Utah State at Boise State | +28.0L30–62 | 66.5 | L30–62 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | Utah State vs UNLV | +19.0L34–50 | 67.5 | L34–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Utah State vs New Mexico | +1.0L45–50 | 78.5 | L45–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Utah State at Wyoming | -2.5W27–25 | 57.0 | W27–25 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Utah State at Washington State | +20.5L28–49 | 69.0 | L28–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Utah State vs Hawai'i | +2.5W55–10 | 62.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Utah State vs San Diego State | -5.0W41–20 | 60.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Utah State at Colorado State | +5.5L37–42 | 56.5 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +12.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah State
93.9 — 3.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Utah State won by 45
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
8–18 (31%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 1
#1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓