Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
·
25,513 cap
Matchup Prediction
Utah
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Utah entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Utah wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Utah wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Utah -20.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Utah 2024 Schedule
Utah's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Utah vs Southern Utah | -37.5W49–0 | 55.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Utah vs Baylor | -14.5W23–12 | 52.5 | W23–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Utah at Utah State | -20.5W38–21 | 43.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Utah at Oklahoma State | -1.0W22–19 | 53.5 | W22–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Utah vs Arizona | -7.5L10–23 | 47.0 | L10–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/11 | Utah at Arizona State | -6.0L19–27 | 46.5 | L19–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Utah vs TCU | -3.0L7–13 | 52.0 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Utah at Houston | -4.5L14–17 | 36.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Utah vs BYU | +3.5L21–22 | 40.5 | L21–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Utah at Colorado | +13.5L24–49 | 43.5 | L24–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Utah vs Iowa State | +6.5L28–31 | 42.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Utah at UCF | +9.5W28–14 | 45.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Utah State vs Robert Morris | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Utah State at USC | +30.5L0–48 | 62.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Utah State vs Utah | +20.5L21–38 | 43.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Utah State at Temple | -6.5L29–45 | 53.5 | L29–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Utah State at Boise State | +28.0L30–62 | 66.5 | L30–62 | O | N |
| Fri 10/11 | Utah State vs UNLV | +19.0L34–50 | 67.5 | L34–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Utah State vs New Mexico | +1.0L45–50 | 78.5 | L45–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Utah State at Wyoming | -2.5W27–25 | 57.0 | W27–25 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Utah State at Washington State | +20.5L28–49 | 69.0 | L28–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Utah State vs Hawai'i | +2.5W55–10 | 62.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Utah State vs San Diego State | -5.0W41–20 | 60.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Utah State at Colorado State | +5.5L37–42 | 56.5 | L37–42 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah Edge
Utah +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Utah Edge
Utah +60.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah
22.2 — 52.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Utah with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
162–79 (67%)
· Yr 20 at school
OC
Andy Ludwig
Yr 3
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 3
#1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓