Fresno State at Air Force Week 11 College Football Matchup Fresno State at Air Force Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 10 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
Fresno State✈ 826 mi+1 hr TZ
28 36
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Fresno State
26
Air Force
17
P&R Line Fresno State -9.5
P&R Total O/U 43
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Fresno State -9.5 · O/U 40.5
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Fresno State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -9.5
O/U 40.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2024 Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Fresno State at Michigan+21.0L10–3048.0L10–30UY
Sat 9/7Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.5W46–3055.5W46–30ON
Sat 9/14Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.5W48–048.5W48–0UY
Sat 9/21Fresno State at New Mexico-12.0W38–2161.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/28Fresno State at UNLV+2.5L14–5951.0L14–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Fresno State vs Washington State+3.5L17–2560.5L17–25UN
Fri 10/18Fresno State at Nevada-3.0W24–2150.0W24–21UN
Sat 10/26Fresno State vs San José State-6.5W33–1055.0W33–10UY
Sat 11/2Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.0L20–2145.5L20–21UN
Sat 11/9Fresno State at Air Force-9.5L28–3640.5L28–36ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.5W28–2243.5W28–22OY
Sat 11/30Fresno State at UCLA+7.5L13–2046.5L13–20UY
Mon 12/23Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.0L20–2841.0L20–28ON
Air Force 2024 Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Air Force vs Merrimack-30.5W21–647.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/7Air Force vs San José State-1.5L7–1743.5L7–17UN
Sat 9/14Air Force at Baylor+17.5L3–3140.5L3–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Air Force at Wyoming-4.0L19–3133.5L19–31ON
Sat 10/5Air Force vs Navy+10.0L7–3437.0L7–34ON
Sat 10/12Air Force at New Mexico+7.0L37–5256.0L37–52ON
Sat 10/19Air Force vs Colorado State+6.0L13–2143.5L13–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Air Force at Army+18.0L3–2038.5L3–20UY
Sat 11/9Air Force vs Fresno State+9.5W36–2840.5W36–28OY
Sat 11/16Air Force vs Oregon State+3.0W28–044.5W28–0UY
Sat 11/23Air Force at Nevada+3.0W22–1944.5W22–19UY
Sat 11/30Air Force at San Diego State-6.5W31–2043.5W31–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Fresno State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Fresno State #110
+0.314
Air Force #103
+0.213
Fresno State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #89
+0.545
Air Force #124
+0.183
Fresno State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Fresno State #113
0.136
Air Force #86
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #91
+7.652
Air Force #56
+7.644
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Fresno State #110
+0.809
Air Force #77
+0.824
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Fresno State #32
69.3
Air Force #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Fresno State
2.4
Air Force
-8.3
Offense Rating
Fresno State
15.1
Air Force
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Fresno State
12.8
Air Force
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Fresno State #104
1.38
Air Force #82
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #12
0.38
Air Force #69
1.29
Fresno State +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Fresno State #1
52.4
Air Force #1
19.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #38
34.4
Air Force #110
65.0
Fresno State +32.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Fresno State
26.2 — 42.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Air Force won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Fresno State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
45–22 (67%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat McCann Yr 2 #1
DC Kevin Coyle Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
130–82 (61%) · Yr 18 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself