Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
Fresno State✈ 188 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -3
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Fresno State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2024 Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Fresno State at Michigan | +21.0L10–30 | 48.0 | L10–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Fresno State vs Sacramento State | -18.5W46–30 | 55.5 | W46–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | -19.5W48–0 | 48.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Fresno State at New Mexico | -12.0W38–21 | 61.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Fresno State at UNLV | +2.5L14–59 | 51.0 | L14–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Fresno State vs Washington State | +3.5L17–25 | 60.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Fri 10/18 | Fresno State at Nevada | -3.0W24–21 | 50.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Fresno State vs San José State | -6.5W33–10 | 55.0 | W33–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Fresno State vs Hawai'i | -12.0L20–21 | 45.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Fresno State at Air Force | -9.5L28–36 | 40.5 | L28–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Fresno State vs Colorado State | -3.5W28–22 | 43.5 | W28–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Fresno State at UCLA | +7.5L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/23 | Fresno State vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L20–28 | 41.0 | L20–28 | O | N |
Nevada 2024 Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Nevada vs SMU | +28.0L24–29 | 55.5 | L24–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Nevada at Troy | +7.5W28–26 | 44.5 | W28–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Nevada vs Georgia Southern | -1.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Nevada at Minnesota | +17.5L0–27 | 44.5 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Nevada vs Eastern Washington | -13.5W49–16 | 54.5 | W49–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Nevada at San José State | +7.0L31–35 | 51.5 | L31–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Nevada vs Oregon State | +3.0W42–37 | 47.0 | W42–37 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +3.0L21–24 | 50.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Nevada at Hawai'i | +2.5L13–34 | 42.0 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Nevada vs Colorado State | +2.0L21–38 | 45.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Nevada at Boise State | +23.5L21–28 | 60.5 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Nevada vs Air Force | -3.0L19–22 | 44.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Nevada at UNLV | +17.5L14–38 | 54.5 | L14–38 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.73
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
45–22 (67%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 3
#1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Lubick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Ioane
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓