Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Alabama -42
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Mercer 2024 Schedule
Mercer's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Mercer at Alabama | +42.0L7–52 | 58.5 | L7–52 | O | N |
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Alabama vs Western Kentucky | -31.0W63–0 | 60.0 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Alabama vs South Florida | -33.5W42–16 | 65.5 | W42–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Alabama at Wisconsin | -15.5W42–10 | 51.0 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Alabama vs Georgia | +2.0W41–34 | 50.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Alabama at Vanderbilt | -23.5L35–40 | 53.5 | L35–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Alabama vs South Carolina | -21.0W27–25 | 50.0 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Alabama at Tennessee | -3.5L17–24 | 57.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Alabama vs Missouri | -16.0W34–0 | 51.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Alabama at LSU | -2.5W42–13 | 57.5 | W42–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Alabama vs Mercer | -42.0W52–7 | 58.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Alabama at Oklahoma | -14.0L3–24 | 47.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Alabama vs Auburn | -10.5W28–14 | 50.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Alabama vs Michigan | -16.5L13–19 | 45.5 | L13–19 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mercer Edge
Mercer +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +52.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓