Matchup Prediction
Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Alabama -16.5
O/U 45.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Alabama
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Alabama vs Western Kentucky | -31.0W63–0 | 60.0 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Alabama vs South Florida | -33.5W42–16 | 65.5 | W42–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Alabama at Wisconsin | -15.5W42–10 | 51.0 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Alabama vs Georgia | +2.0W41–34 | 50.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Alabama at Vanderbilt | -23.5L35–40 | 53.5 | L35–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Alabama vs South Carolina | -21.0W27–25 | 50.0 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Alabama at Tennessee | -3.5L17–24 | 57.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Alabama vs Missouri | -16.0W34–0 | 51.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Alabama at LSU | -2.5W42–13 | 57.5 | W42–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Alabama vs Mercer | -42.0W52–7 | 58.5 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Alabama at Oklahoma | -14.0L3–24 | 47.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Alabama vs Auburn | -10.5W28–14 | 50.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Alabama vs Michigan | -16.5L13–19 | 45.5 | L13–19 | U | N |
Michigan 2024 Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Michigan vs Fresno State | -21.0W30–10 | 48.0 | W30–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan vs Texas | +7.0L12–31 | 42.0 | L12–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan vs Arkansas State | -22.0W28–18 | 47.5 | W28–18 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan vs USC | +4.0W27–24 | 44.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan vs Minnesota | -10.5W27–24 | 34.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Michigan at Washington | +1.5L17–27 | 39.5 | L17–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan at Illinois | -6.0L7–21 | 44.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan vs Michigan State | -3.5W24–17 | 39.0 | W24–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan vs Oregon | +14.5L17–38 | 45.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Michigan at Indiana | +14.5L15–20 | 47.5 | L15–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -10.5W50–6 | 35.5 | W50–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan at Ohio State | +20.5W13–10 | 41.5 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Michigan vs Alabama | +16.5W19–13 | 45.5 | W19–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
82.8 — 9.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Alabama with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Wommack
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kirk Campbell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Don Martindale
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓