Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
·
24,050 cap
East Carolina✈ 245 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors East Carolina,
while Game Control favors App State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
App State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -7.5
O/U 48.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2023 Schedule
East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | East Carolina at Michigan | +36.0L3–30 | 53.5 | L3–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | East Carolina vs Marshall | +3.0L13–31 | 43.5 | L13–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | East Carolina at App State | +7.5L28–43 | 48.5 | L28–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb | -13.0W44–0 | 51.0 | W44–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | East Carolina at Rice | +3.5L17–24 | 47.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/12 | East Carolina vs SMU | +11.5L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | East Carolina vs Charlotte | -6.0L7–10 | 39.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | East Carolina at UTSA | +17.5L27–41 | 48.0 | L27–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | East Carolina vs Tulane | +17.0L10–13 | 46.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | East Carolina at Florida Atlantic | +7.5W22–7 | 44.5 | W22–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | East Carolina at Navy | +2.5L0–10 | 30.5 | L0–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | East Carolina vs Tulsa | -4.5L27–29 | 44.5 | L27–29 | O | N |
App State 2023 Schedule
App State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | App State vs Gardner-Webb | -22.5W45–24 | 51.0 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | App State at North Carolina | +18.0L34–40 | 58.0 | L34–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | App State vs East Carolina | -7.5W43–28 | 48.5 | W43–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | App State at Wyoming | +3.0L19–22 | 45.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | App State at UL Monroe | -13.5W41–40 | 50.5 | W41–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/10 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -4.5L24–27 | 59.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | App State at Old Dominion | -6.0L21–28 | 56.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | App State vs Southern Miss | -16.0W48–38 | 55.5 | W48–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | App State vs Marshall | -3.0W31–9 | 57.5 | W31–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | App State at Georgia State | +2.5W42–14 | 62.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | App State at James Madison | +10.0W26–23 | 56.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -7.5W55–27 | 62.5 | W55–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | App State at Troy | +6.5L23–49 | 51.5 | L23–49 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | App State vs Miami (OH) | -6.5W13–9 | 41.0 | W13–9 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +22.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
App State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
App State
43.0 — 31.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
App State won by 15
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
22–27 (45%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Donnie Kirkpatrick
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 3
#1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
28–14 (67%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Frank Ponce
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Sloan
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓