App State at James Madison Week 12 College Football Matchup App State at James Madison Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Bridgeforth Stadium Harrisonburg, VA · Turf · 24,878 cap
App State✈ 217 miSame TZ
26 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
App State
24
James Madison
33
P&R Line James Madison -9
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -10.0 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
James Madison wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
James Madison wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
James Madison -10.0
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 James Madison 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 App State 2nd straight Road Game
App State 2023 Schedule
App State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2App State vs Gardner-Webb-22.5W45–2451.0W45–24ON
Sat 9/9App State at North Carolina+18.0L34–4058.0L34–40OY
Sat 9/16App State vs East Carolina-7.5W43–2848.5W43–28OY
Sat 9/23App State at Wyoming+3.0L19–2245.0L19–22UY
Sat 9/30App State at UL Monroe-13.5W41–4050.5W41–40ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/10App State vs Coastal Carolina-4.5L24–2759.0L24–27UN
Sat 10/21App State at Old Dominion-6.0L21–2856.0L21–28UN
Sat 10/28App State vs Southern Miss-16.0W48–3855.5W48–38ON
Sat 11/4App State vs Marshall-3.0W31–957.5W31–9UY
Sat 11/11App State at Georgia State+2.5W42–1462.5W42–14UY
Sat 11/18App State at James Madison+10.0W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/25App State vs Georgia Southern-7.5W55–2762.5W55–27OY
Sat 12/2App State at Troy+6.5L23–4951.5L23–49ON
Sat 12/16App State vs Miami (OH)-6.5W13–941.0W13–9UN
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2James Madison vs Bucknell-47.0W38–353.5W38–3UN
Sat 9/9James Madison at Virginia-6.0W36–3540.0W36–35ON
Sat 9/16James Madison at Troy+2.5W16–1446.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/23James Madison at Utah State-5.5W45–3853.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/30James Madison vs South Alabama-1.0W31–2348.5W31–23OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14James Madison vs Georgia Southern-5.5W41–1360.0W41–13UY
Thu 10/19James Madison at Marshall-5.0W20–949.0W20–9UY
Sat 10/28James Madison vs Old Dominion-19.5W30–2748.0W30–27ON
Sat 11/4James Madison at Georgia State-6.0W42–1453.0W42–14OY
Sat 11/11James Madison vs UConn-24.5W44–647.5W44–6OY
Sat 11/18James Madison vs App State-10.0L23–2656.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/25James Madison at Coastal Carolina-9.5W56–1450.5W56–14OY
Sat 12/23James Madison vs Air Force+2.5L21–3144.5L21–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
App State #41
+0.333
James Madison #44
+0.435
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
App State #19
+0.682
James Madison #13
+0.677
App State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
App State #26
0.182
James Madison #1
0.239
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
App State #77
+6.664
James Madison #64
+7.069
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
App State #28
+0.789
James Madison #27
+0.882
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
App State #72
70.7
James Madison #8
66.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
App State
-9.7
James Madison
-1.3
Offense Rating
App State
9.0
James Madison
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
App State
18.7
James Madison
15.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
App State #61
0.67
James Madison #22
1.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
App State #15
0.89
James Madison #10
0.67
James Madison +1.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
App State #1
42.7
James Madison #1
71.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
App State #35
30.9
James Madison #13
13.7
James Madison +29.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
28–14 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Frank Ponce Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Sloan Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shanahan Yr 2 #1
DC Bryant Haines Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself