Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
App State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -13.5
O/U 50.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → App State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2023 Schedule
App State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | App State vs Gardner-Webb | -22.5W45–24 | 51.0 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | App State at North Carolina | +18.0L34–40 | 58.0 | L34–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | App State vs East Carolina | -7.5W43–28 | 48.5 | W43–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | App State at Wyoming | +3.0L19–22 | 45.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | App State at UL Monroe | -13.5W41–40 | 50.5 | W41–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/10 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -4.5L24–27 | 59.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | App State at Old Dominion | -6.0L21–28 | 56.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | App State vs Southern Miss | -16.0W48–38 | 55.5 | W48–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | App State vs Marshall | -3.0W31–9 | 57.5 | W31–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | App State at Georgia State | +2.5W42–14 | 62.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | App State at James Madison | +10.0W26–23 | 56.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -7.5W55–27 | 62.5 | W55–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | App State at Troy | +6.5L23–49 | 51.5 | L23–49 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | App State vs Miami (OH) | -6.5W13–9 | 41.0 | W13–9 | U | N |
UL Monroe 2023 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | UL Monroe vs Army | +8.5W17–13 | 47.0 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UL Monroe vs Lamar | -26.0W24–14 | 48.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | UL Monroe at Texas A&M | +36.5L3–47 | 53.5 | L3–47 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/30 | UL Monroe vs App State | +13.5L40–41 | 50.5 | L40–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +11.0L7–55 | 51.5 | L7–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +18.5L20–21 | 64.5 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | UL Monroe at Georgia Southern | +16.5L28–38 | 60.5 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -1.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | UL Monroe at Southern Miss | +3.0L7–24 | 56.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +23.5L14–45 | 47.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | UL Monroe at Ole Miss | +35.5L3–35 | 59.5 | L3–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +12.5L21–52 | 53.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ App State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ App State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UL Monroe
2 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
App State
27.1 — 41.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
App State won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
28–14 (67%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Frank Ponce
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Sloan
Yr 1
#1
UL Monroe
Terry Bowden #1
10–17 (37%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Matt Kubik
Yr 2
#1
DC
Vic Koenning
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓