Sat, Sep 2 2023
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Week 1
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🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
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24,050 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
App State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
App State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
App State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
App State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -22.5
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Gardner-Webb 2023 Schedule
Gardner-Webb's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Gardner-Webb at App State | +22.5L24–45 | 51.0 | L24–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Gardner-Webb at East Carolina | +13.0L0–44 | 51.0 | L0–44 | U | N |
App State 2023 Schedule
App State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | App State vs Gardner-Webb | -22.5W45–24 | 51.0 | W45–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | App State at North Carolina | +18.0L34–40 | 58.0 | L34–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | App State vs East Carolina | -7.5W43–28 | 48.5 | W43–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | App State at Wyoming | +3.0L19–22 | 45.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | App State at UL Monroe | -13.5W41–40 | 50.5 | W41–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/10 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -4.5L24–27 | 59.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | App State at Old Dominion | -6.0L21–28 | 56.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | App State vs Southern Miss | -16.0W48–38 | 55.5 | W48–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | App State vs Marshall | -3.0W31–9 | 57.5 | W31–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | App State at Georgia State | +2.5W42–14 | 62.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | App State at James Madison | +10.0W26–23 | 56.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -7.5W55–27 | 62.5 | W55–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | App State at Troy | +6.5L23–49 | 51.5 | L23–49 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | App State vs Miami (OH) | -6.5W13–9 | 41.0 | W13–9 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +44.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓