Sun, Sep 10 2023
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Week 2
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🏟 Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, CA
·
Turf
·
41,031 cap
Eastern Washington✈ 746 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Fresno State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -31.5
O/U 63.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Eastern Washington 2023 Schedule
Eastern Washington's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Eastern Washington at Fresno State | +31.5L31–34 | 63.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Fresno State at Purdue | +4.0W39–35 | 47.0 | W39–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Fresno State vs Eastern Washington | -31.5W34–31 | 63.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Fresno State at Arizona State | -4.0W29–0 | 48.0 | W29–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Fresno State vs Kent State | -27.5W53–10 | 47.5 | W53–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -25.5W27–9 | 50.5 | W27–9 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -5.5L19–24 | 43.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Fresno State at Utah State | -5.5W37–32 | 56.0 | W37–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -10.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -2.5W37–30 | 53.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Fresno State at San José State | +2.5L18–42 | 51.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -22.5L17–25 | 58.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -5.5L18–33 | 47.0 | L18–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | +3.0W37–10 | 52.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Washington Edge
Eastern Washington +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +59.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓