Sun, Oct 1 2023
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, CA
·
Turf
·
41,031 cap
Nevada✈ 188 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Fresno State wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Fresno State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -25.5
O/U 50.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Fresno State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2023 Schedule
Nevada's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Nevada at USC | +37.5L14–66 | 63.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Nevada vs Idaho | +5.5L6–33 | 51.0 | L6–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Nevada vs Kansas | +28.5L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Nevada at Texas State | +17.0L24–35 | 60.0 | L24–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Nevada at Fresno State | +25.5L9–27 | 50.5 | L9–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L27–45 | 51.5 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Nevada at San Diego State | +11.0W6–0 | 48.5 | W6–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Nevada vs New Mexico | +1.0W34–24 | 50.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -3.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Nevada at Utah State | +14.5L24–41 | 54.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Nevada at Colorado State | +12.5L20–30 | 45.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Nevada vs Wyoming | +11.0L6–42 | 42.0 | L6–42 | O | N |
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Fresno State at Purdue | +4.0W39–35 | 47.0 | W39–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Fresno State vs Eastern Washington | -31.5W34–31 | 63.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Fresno State at Arizona State | -4.0W29–0 | 48.0 | W29–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Fresno State vs Kent State | -27.5W53–10 | 47.5 | W53–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -25.5W27–9 | 50.5 | W27–9 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -5.5L19–24 | 43.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Fresno State at Utah State | -5.5W37–32 | 56.0 | W37–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -10.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -2.5W37–30 | 53.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Fresno State at San José State | +2.5L18–42 | 51.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -22.5L17–25 | 58.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -5.5L18–33 | 47.0 | L18–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | +3.0W37–10 | 52.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +45.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Fresno State
81.8 — 7.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
2–13 (13%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Derek Sage
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kwame Agyeman
Yr 2
#1
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
39–18 (68%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓