Sun, Sep 17 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
Fresno State✈ 500 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Fresno State,
while Game Control favors Arizona State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Fresno State wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Arizona State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -4
O/U 48.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Fresno State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Fresno State at Purdue | +4.0W39–35 | 47.0 | W39–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Fresno State vs Eastern Washington | -31.5W34–31 | 63.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Fresno State at Arizona State | -4.0W29–0 | 48.0 | W29–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Fresno State vs Kent State | -27.5W53–10 | 47.5 | W53–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -25.5W27–9 | 50.5 | W27–9 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -5.5L19–24 | 43.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Fresno State at Utah State | -5.5W37–32 | 56.0 | W37–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -10.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -2.5W37–30 | 53.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Fresno State at San José State | +2.5L18–42 | 51.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -22.5L17–25 | 58.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -5.5L18–33 | 47.0 | L18–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | +3.0W37–10 | 52.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
Arizona State 2023 Schedule
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Arizona State vs Southern Utah | -34.0W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arizona State vs Oklahoma State | +2.5L15–27 | 53.5 | L15–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arizona State vs Fresno State | +4.0L0–29 | 48.0 | L0–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arizona State vs USC | +34.5L28–42 | 62.0 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arizona State at California | +13.0L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arizona State vs Colorado | +3.0L24–27 | 58.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arizona State at Washington | +28.0L7–15 | 59.5 | L7–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Arizona State vs Washington State | +4.5W38–27 | 49.0 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arizona State at Utah | +11.0L3–55 | 40.5 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Arizona State at UCLA | +14.0W17–7 | 45.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arizona State vs Oregon | +21.5L13–49 | 52.5 | L13–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Arizona State vs Arizona | +12.5L23–59 | 48.5 | L23–59 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +13.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
39–18 (68%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 2
#1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Beau Baldwin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓