Sun, Sep 24 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, CA
·
Turf
·
41,031 cap
Kent State✈ 2,069 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Fresno State wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Fresno State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -27.5
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Fresno State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2023 Schedule
Kent State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Kent State at UCF | +35.0L6–56 | 54.0 | L6–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Kent State at Arkansas | +38.0L6–28 | 57.5 | L6–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kent State vs Central Connecticut | -21.5W38–10 | 46.5 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Kent State at Fresno State | +27.5L10–53 | 47.5 | L10–53 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +14.0L3–23 | 51.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kent State at Ohio | +24.5L17–42 | 45.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +7.0L14–28 | 40.0 | L14–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +6.5L6–24 | 44.0 | L6–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Kent State at Akron | +4.0L27–31 | 39.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/8 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +10.5L19–49 | 41.5 | L19–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kent State at Ball State | +10.5L3–34 | 41.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | +20.5L27–37 | 44.5 | L27–37 | O | Y |
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Fresno State at Purdue | +4.0W39–35 | 47.0 | W39–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Fresno State vs Eastern Washington | -31.5W34–31 | 63.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Fresno State at Arizona State | -4.0W29–0 | 48.0 | W29–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Fresno State vs Kent State | -27.5W53–10 | 47.5 | W53–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -25.5W27–9 | 50.5 | W27–9 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -5.5L19–24 | 43.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Fresno State at Utah State | -5.5W37–32 | 56.0 | W37–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -10.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -2.5W37–30 | 53.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Fresno State at San José State | +2.5L18–42 | 51.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -22.5L17–25 | 58.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -5.5L18–33 | 47.0 | L18–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | +3.0W37–10 | 52.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +18.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Fresno State
91.5 — 4.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 43
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 1
#1
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
39–18 (68%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓