Sat, Sep 30 2023
·
Week 5
·
🏟 War Memorial Stadium
Laramie, WY
·
Turf
·
29,181 cap
New Mexico✈ 435 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Wyoming,
while Game Control favors New Mexico.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -14.5
O/U 40.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2023 Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico at Texas A&M | +37.5L10–52 | 48.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech | -16.0W56–10 | 51.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -2.5L17–27 | 52.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico at Massachusetts | +3.5W34–31 | 48.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | New Mexico at Wyoming | +14.5L26–35 | 40.5 | L26–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | New Mexico vs San José State | +6.5L24–52 | 55.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | New Mexico vs Hawai'i | +1.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | New Mexico at Nevada | -1.0L24–34 | 50.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico vs UNLV | +10.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +27.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico at Fresno State | +22.5W25–17 | 58.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | New Mexico vs Utah State | +4.5L41–44 | 58.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
Wyoming 2023 Schedule
Wyoming's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Wyoming vs Texas Tech | +13.0W35–33 | 50.5 | W35–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Wyoming vs Portland State | -28.0W31–17 | 51.0 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Wyoming at Texas | +31.0L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Wyoming vs App State | -3.0W22–19 | 45.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Wyoming vs New Mexico | -14.5W35–26 | 40.5 | W35–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Wyoming vs Fresno State | +5.5W24–19 | 43.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Wyoming at Air Force | +12.5L27–34 | 42.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Wyoming at Boise State | +4.5L7–32 | 48.5 | L7–32 | U | N |
| Fri 11/3 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | -6.0W24–15 | 41.0 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/10 | Wyoming at UNLV | +2.5L14–34 | 48.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Wyoming vs Hawai'i | -13.5W42–9 | 45.5 | W42–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Wyoming at Nevada | -11.0W42–6 | 42.0 | W42–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Wyoming vs Toledo | -4.5W16–15 | 43.5 | W16–15 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
8–26 (24%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Bryant Vincent
Yr 1
#1
DC
Troy Reffett
Yr 1
#1
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
54–57 (49%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Tim Polasek
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jay Sawvel
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓